653 Meadow Rd · Smithtown, NY 11787

$729,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,834 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1958 0.47 ac lot $397/sqft · 16% below area Est $865k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Updated Two-Level High Ranch on nearly half an acre with 10 bright rooms and duel driveways. Enjoy a large deck, fenced yard, and versatile mother-daughter setup with private and interior entrances. Conveniently located near top-rated schools. A rare opportunity for both comfortable living and strong investment potential.

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $729k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $550k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $537k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $537k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.9% in Smithtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#550 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($685k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $729k implies a 356% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $537,465 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $864,630
• List price: $729,000
• Delta: -15.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Hill Ln	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,924 (+5%)	2mo	$875,000	$455	66
10 Lynch Ln	0.30mi	3/1.5	2,000 (+9%)	11mo	$800,120	$400	60
40 Ridge Rd	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,806 (-2%)	11mo	$865,000	$479	56
677 Meadow Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (+13%)	5mo	$850,000	$409	55
27 Rogers Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-7%)	14mo	$728,000	$428	38
25 Rogers Ln	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,087 (+14%)	1mo	$730,000	$350	37
5 Washington Ct	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+9%)	13mo	$781,000	$391	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-182,322
• Equity at exit: $108,696

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-240,823
• Equity at exit: $63,031

Cash invested: $204,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11787

• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,823
• Tax from tax record: −$1,131 /mo · $13,567/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,129
• Net cashflow: $-1,011

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,655

Max offer price $550,353

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,250
• Closing costs: $21,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Manitou Trl Kings Park, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$5,750	$3.19	21d	1	1.27mi
6 Hillview Ct Commack, NY	3.0	2.0	1638	$4,950	$3.02	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $729,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $729,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $739,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $739,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $739,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $739,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $739,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $739,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $739,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $739,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $739,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $739,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $739,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $739,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $739,000 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful Updated Two-Level High Ranch on nearly half an acre with 10 bright rooms and duel driveways. Enjoy a large deck, fenced yard, and versatile mother-daughter setup with private and interior entrances. Conveniently located near top-rated schools. A rare opportunity for both comfortable living and strong investment potential.

16. 2026-04-04
    historical $739,000 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Beautiful Updated Two-Level High Ranch on nearly half an acre with 10 bright rooms and duel driveways. Enjoy a large deck, fenced yard, and versatile mother-daughter setup with private and interior entrances. Conveniently located near top-rated schools. A rare opportunity for both comfortable living and strong investment potential.

17. 2022-03-21
    price $2,150
18. 2021-09-03
    historical
19. 2021-09-02
    status Active
20. 2021-04-22
    historical
21. 2021-02-21
    status Active
22. 2021-02-17
    historical
23. 2020-10-31
    status Active
24. 2020-10-26
    historical
25. 2020-03-08
    price $439,888
26. 2020-02-18
    listed $428,888 New
27. 1996-02-09
    soldstatus $160,000
28. 1987-12-28
    soldstatus $146,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,567 · $1,131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,567 · $1,131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,835
• − Property taxes: −$13,567
• − Insurance: −$3,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,160
• − Management: −$5,160
• − Depreciation: −$21,207
• Taxable loss: −$25,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,019
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithtown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627060
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $110,009
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #473
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smithtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #9881

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithtown, NY
• City population: 34,656
• Population (ZIP): 34,656

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.62%
• Current HPI: 301.0617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+406.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $739,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Coming Soon $739,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-21 Price Changed $2,150 RENT.
• 2021-09-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-21 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-31 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-08 Price Changed $439,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-18 Listed $428,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1987-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,567 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.