442 B St · Empire, CA 95319

$230,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 7,000 sqft lot Est $275k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors and savvy buyers! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is a true diamond in the rough-perfect for those looking to build sweat equity or add to their portfolio. With some TLC, this property has endless possibilities and tons of potential. Whether you're looking to renovate, create rental income, or craft your own dream space, this fixer upper offers the perfect opportunity. Don't miss out on this rare chance to make it your own!

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($430/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,013 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,320 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,072
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 A St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	846 (-6%)	1mo	$165,000	$195	68
18 B St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	940 (+5%)	2mo	$231,000	$246	66
5009 Estates Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	2mo	$295,000	$307	65
616 Summit Ct	0.38mi	2/1.0	816 (-9%)	22mo	$356,000	$436	49
5100 Tyson Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	14mo	$350,000	$347	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $127,432
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $373,239
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95319

• Home prices YoY: 33.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $101	+0% $36	+5% $-29	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-34	+0% $36	+5% $106	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $94	base $36	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4705 Yosemite Blvd Unit B Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	15d	1	0.46mi
5351 Yosemite Blvd Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,475	$1.48	22d	1	0.76mi
1108 Cedar Creek Dr #1 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,999	$1.88	15d	1	1.31mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,087/yr (+$91/mo · 164.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $1,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Empire

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #24920

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Empire, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,580

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 46% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 140.38%
• Current HPI: 557.0645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $661 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.