624 Hog Rd · Hawley, PA 18428

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 490 sqft · Other public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1950 $192/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming seasonal cabin located in Seeley's Landing on leased land with lake rights to beautiful Lake Wallenpaupack! Enjoy access to one of the Pocono region's most sought after lakes, including a waiting list for boat slips for future boating opportunities. This cozy retreat features 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom with shower, and a storage loft above one bedroom for additional space. The cabin offers a comfortable living room, dining area, and kitchen perfect for weekend getaways or seasonal enjoyment. Electric baseboard heat and a window unit air conditioner provide comfort throughout the seasons. Relax outdoors on the screened-in porch or entertain on the stone patio surrounded by nature. Two s

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Storage loft
• Lake rights

Tags

• LAKE RIGHTS
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• STONE PATIO
• STORAGE LOFT
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee $2,300); Association fee covers trash; Powered boats allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (unpaved) and off-street parking
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Cable available and connected; Water connected; Electricity connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Cabin (residential, recreational); One story
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Screened porch; Porch; Shed(s); Sloped lot with few trees and gentle slope; Lake Wallenpaupack frontage/nearby; Dirt and gravel road access; Private maintained road and private/unimproved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Linoleum; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heat; Ceiling fans for cooling; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.0% in Hawley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#898 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack North Intrmd Sch (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #733 of 1,518 statewide, top 48%, 471 students, 63% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 44% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.32%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $94,603
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.15×
• Total profit: $260,043
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $641/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $447	-5% $410	+0% $373	+5% $337	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $238	-5% $306	+0% $373	+5% $441	+10% $509
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $406	base $373	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-25
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $641 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,347 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 110.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$641
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$631
• After-tax cash flow: $3,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hawley

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #898
• US rank: #9570

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $129,900 PWMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $641 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.