Desert Willow Plan · Phoenix, AZ 85253

$2,025,200

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 5,181 sqft · SingleFamily · 378 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +0.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is currently under construction.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 377 days

🏗️ New construction. The $2,025,200 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $2,711,364.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.03M. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15k ($-176k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $593k (70.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $519k (74.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $519k (74.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Cocopah Middle School (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B+, #3 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 886 students, 9% FRL); Chaparral High School (math 40% / reading 35%, grade F, #82 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 2,038 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 21% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 518 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 159d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($185k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $290k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $271k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$466k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 378 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.78M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $518,697 (74.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 378 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 74% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.19% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.14%
• DSCR: -0.03
• GRM: 43.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,711,364
• List price: $2,025,200
• Delta: -25.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5501 E Sanna St	0.38mi	5/5.5 (+1)	5,469 (+6%)	6mo	$4,650,000	$850	57
5134 E Beryl Ave	0.39mi	5/4.0 (+1)	4,497 (-13%)	1mo	$2,400,000	$534	54
9900 N 52nd St	0.28mi	5/4.5 (+1)	5,684 (+10%)	14mo	$4,400,000	$774	52
5518 E Sanna St	0.40mi	4/4.5	5,836 (+13%)	11mo	$4,175,000	$715	49
5838 E Berneil Ln	0.72mi	4/3.5	4,694 (-9%)	5mo	$3,417,000	$728	44
10050 N 58th St	0.52mi	5/4.5 (+1)	5,561 (+7%)	16mo	$4,400,000	$791	44
5540 E Shea Blvd	0.55mi	5/4.0 (+1)	4,706 (-9%)	19mo	$1,675,000	$356	38
5850 E Berneil Ln	0.75mi	5/4.5 (+1)	5,327 (+3%)	22mo	$3,900,000	$732	35
4829 E Beryl Ave	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	5,749 (+11%)	17mo	$2,362,500	$411	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $571,746
• Equity at exit: $2,442,611

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $2,485,016
• Equity at exit: $5,267,583

Cash invested: $759,182 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.0 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $4,199,000 ($818/sqft)
• Median days on market: 106 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -36.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85253

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 518
• Price-to-rent: 32.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,219
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,389 /mo · $40,670/yr
• Insurance: −$1,130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,089
• Net cashflow: $-14,640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,719

Max offer price $592,944

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12,766	-5% $-13,703	+0% $-14,640	+5% $-15,577	+10% $-16,514
Rent	-10% $-15,050	-5% $-14,845	+0% $-14,640	+5% $-14,435	+10% $-14,230
Rate	-1.0pp $-13,274	-0.5pp $-13,950	base $-14,640	+0.5pp $-15,343	+1.0pp $-16,057

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $677,841
• Closing costs: $81,341
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5353 E Sanna St Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.5	6661	$22,495	$3.38	184d	1	0.36mi
9071 N 53rd Pl Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.5	6576	$21,900	$3.33	37d	1	0.42mi
9128 N 55th St Paradise Valley, AZ	4.0	4.5	5525	$45,000	$8.14	165d	1	0.43mi
11002 N 52nd St Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	6.0	5365	$14,995	$2.79	10d	1	0.78mi
5927 E North Ln Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.0	5400	$13,495	$2.50	159d	1	0.80mi
5927 E North Ln Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.0	5400	$13,495	$2.50	165d	1	0.80mi
6119 E Gold Dust Ave Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.5	5500	$20,000	$3.64	10d	1	0.95mi
6119 E Gold Dust Ave Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.5	5500	$20,000	$3.64	159d	1	0.95mi
5803 E Via del Cielo Paradise Valley, AZ	4.0	4.5	5088	$12,500	$2.46	126d	1	0.98mi
8531 N 49th St Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	4.5	6832	$60,000	$8.78	165d	1	1.08mi
4446 E Mockingbird Ln Paradise Valley, AZ	3.0	3.5	4258	$24,995	$5.87	165d	1	1.45mi
5057 E Sky Desert Ln Paradise Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	5645	$19,000	$3.37	115d	1	1.47mi
6112 E Mockingbird Ln Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	3.5	5244	$12,000	$2.29	104d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 378 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 372 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 371 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 370 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $2,025,200 Active 369 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 368 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 367 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 366 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 365 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 364 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 363 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 362 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 361 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 360 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 359 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 358 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 357 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 356 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 355 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 354 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 353 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 352 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 351 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 350 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 349 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 348 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 347 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 346 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 345 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 344 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 343 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 342 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 341 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 340 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 339 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 338 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 337 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 336 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 335 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 334 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 333 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 332 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 331 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 330 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 329 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $2,025,200 Active 328 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$151,879
• − Property taxes: −$40,670
• − Insurance: −$13,557
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,979
• − Management: −$4,979
• − Depreciation: −$78,876
• Taxable loss: −$232,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$55,847
• After-tax cash flow: $-119,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 10/100 Gut rehab Est. rehab $518,100–$777,150 screening

This property is under construction and lacks photos of the interior and exterior, making it impossible to assess its condition or value.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Gut scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cherokee Elementary School A+ AZ #5/1,109 Nat'l #432/41,679 Middle Cocopah Middle School B+ AZ #3/218 Nat'l #1,453/14,009 High Chaparral High School F AZ #82/381 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,904
• Household income: $184,979
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.95%
• Current HPI: 416.0855
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Listed $2,025,200 Zillow