366 Burr St · New Haven, CT 06512

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1956 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This raised ranch style property is in need of a little TLC. Looking for an investor or handyman to return it to its former glory. Unaware of any major structural damages.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 4.5% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 100 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.53%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,304
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Forest St	0.26mi	3/2.0	988 (0%)	1mo	$385,000	$390	85
31 Forest St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+2%)	0mo	$335,000	$332	81
19 Hughes St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,042 (+6%)	2mo	$290,000	$278	68
327 Concord St	0.56mi	3/1.0	960 (-3%)	2mo	$340,000	$354	65
118 Frank St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	975 (-1%)	3mo	$300,000	$308	64
316 Tyler St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,068 (+8%)	1mo	$375,000	$351	63
4 Laura Ln	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-13%)	5mo	$265,000	$307	60
133 Charter Oak Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,075 (+9%)	4mo	$345,000	$321	56
218 Dodge Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,096 (+11%)	8mo	$320,000	$292	53
1820 Dean St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-10%)	5mo	$235,000	$265	49
360 Kneeland Rd	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,068 (+8%)	8mo	$280,000	$262	44
120 Harrington Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,115 (+13%)	6mo	$325,000	$291	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $24,035
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $64,835
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06512

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,742/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,396

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $844	-5% $809	+0% $774	+5% $738	+10% $703
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $680	+0% $774	+5% $867	+10% $961
Rate	-1.0pp $837	-0.5pp $805	base $774	+0.5pp $741	+1.0pp $708

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Mansion St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	4d	1	0.73mi
223 Townsend Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,900	$2.64	20d	1	0.80mi
35 Main Street Anx New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	4d	1	1.00mi
194 S End Rd New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	45d	1	1.34mi
22 Chamberlain St #22 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.5	990	$1,950	$1.97	24d	1	1.42mi
210 Burwell St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-04
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-11-26
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,742 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,742 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$4,742
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,905
• After-tax cash flow: $7,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 28,830
• Household income: $96,146
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -302.63%
• Current HPI: 302.2679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $125,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,742 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.