26181 Francis Dr · Abita Springs, LA 70420

$154,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2012 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and full of potential, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers over 2,400 square feet of living space on a generous .92 acre lot. Inside, you'll find a large open living area with plenty of room to spread out, along with a spacious kitchen featuring ample cabinet space and a center island perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The split floor plan offers privacy, while the oversized primary suite includes a large bathroom with soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanities. Outside, enjoy the peace and space of country-style living with nearly an acre to make your own. If you've been looking for space, functionality, and value all in one, this one checks the boxes.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Built 2012
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking available
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Residential property in Hillcrest Country Club Estates
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; 1 story
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Lot roughly 0.92 acres (approximately 200 x 200)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.5% in Abita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#11 in LA, #3,024 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $155k implies a 3420% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.26%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $379,392
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25514 Highway 435	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,552 (+5%)	17mo	$399,000	$156	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-16,949
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,705
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70420

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $576/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,711

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $154,900 Active 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Spacious and full of potential, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers over 2,400 square feet of living space on a generous .92 acre lot. Inside, you'll find a large open living area with plenty of room to spread out, along with a spacious kitchen featuring ample cabinet space and a center island perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The split floor plan offers privacy, while the oversized primary suite includes a large bathroom with soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanities. Outside, enjoy the peace and space of country-style living with nearly an acre to make your own. If you've been looking for space, functionality, and value all in one, this one checks the boxes.

2. 2026-05-15
   listed $154,900 Active 703-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Spacious and full of potential, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers over 2,400 square feet of living space on a generous .92 acre lot. Inside, you'll find a large open living area with plenty of room to spread out, along with a spacious kitchen featuring ample cabinet space and a center island perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The split floor plan offers privacy, while the oversized primary suite includes a large bathroom with soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanities. Outside, enjoy the peace and space of country-style living with nearly an acre to make your own. If you've been looking for space, functionality, and value all in one, this one checks the boxes.

3. 2007-12-10
   listed $24,900
4. 2007-12-10
   listed $24,900
5. 2005-04-20
   soldstatus $12,000
6. 2005-01-14
   soldstatus $9,000
7. 2005-01-14
   soldstatus $10,000
8. 2005-01-05
   listed $10,000
9. 2005-01-05
   listed $11,500
10. 2004-10-08
    soldstatus $13,000
11. 2004-08-12
    listed $16,000
12. 2004-06-26
    listed $16,000
13. 2003-06-06
    soldstatus $4,400
14. 2002-07-30
    soldstatus $4,600
15. 2002-07-01
    listed $4,600
16. 1996-12-31
    soldstatus $11,400
17. 1994-09-22
    listed $11,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$576
• − Insurance: −$5,893
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$196
• After-tax cash flow: $1,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Abita Springs

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,965

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 19% Italian 4% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.38%
• Current HPI: 184.2219
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+1201.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $154,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $154,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-12-10 Listed $24,900 GSREIN
• 2007-12-10 Listed $24,900 GSREIN
• 2005-04-20 Sold (MLS) — GSREIN
• 2005-01-14 Sold (MLS) — GSREIN
• 2005-01-14 Sold (MLS) — GSREIN
• 2005-01-05 Listed $11,500 GSREIN
• 2005-01-05 Listed $10,000 GSREIN
• 2004-10-08 Sold (MLS) — GSREIN
• 2004-08-12 Listed $16,000 GSREIN
• 2004-06-26 Listed $16,000 GSREIN
• 2003-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $4,400 Public Records
• 2002-07-30 Sold (MLS) — GSREIN
• 2002-07-01 Listed $4,600 GSREIN
• 1996-12-31 Sold (MLS) — GSREIN
• 1994-09-22 Listed $11,900 GSREIN

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $576 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.