5088 W Gray Sea Eagle Ln SW · Tumwater, WA 98512

$186,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1998 $138/sqft · 16% below area Est $221k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 2 bed, 2 full bath manufactured home in a desirable 55+ community! This 1,173 sq ft home features all new interior paint, brand new flooring throughout (LVP and carpet), updated kitchen lighting, and new outlet/switch cover plates throughout. Major system updates include a newer roof (2011/2012), HVAC (2017), water heater (2023/2024), and fresh exterior paint (September 2024). Enjoy outdoor living with a fully fenced backyard (updated fencing) and a private patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The oversized two-car garage offers excellent storage and flexibility. Seller offering a $6,000 credit at closing with acceptable offer—an ideal opportunity to p

Key facts

• Hvac
• Newer roof
• Water heater

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN LIGHTING
• NEW OUTLET SWITCH COVER PLATES
• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC
• WATER HEATER
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,420 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.46%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,796
• List price: $186,000
• Delta: -15.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5354 Golden Eagle Ln SW	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$220,000	$164	84
5301 E Eagle Ln SW	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	4mo	$225,000	$160	81
5119 Golden Eagle Ln SW	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-8%)	5mo	$196,000	$159	76
5279 Bald Eagle Ln SW	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+2%)	12mo	$225,000	$163	75
5302 E Eagle Ln SW	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$215,000	$149	73
930 Trosper Rd SW #70	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,358 (+1%)	8mo	$109,900	$81	71
5081 E Gray Sea Eagle Ln SW	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,176 (-12%)	13mo	$100,000	$85	64
930 Trosper Rd SW #64	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$61,000	$49	63
930 Trosper Rd SW #71	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,458 (+8%)	5mo	$230,000	$158	62
930 Trosper Rd #135	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-12%)	12mo	$132,000	$111	48
930 Trosper Rd SW #130	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+15%)	2mo	$167,500	$108	47
1841 Trosper Rd SW #38	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	13mo	$37,000	$32	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,792
• Equity at exit: $27,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $28,460
• Equity at exit: $16,082

Cash invested: $52,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,806/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $186,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $559	-5% $507	+0% $454	+5% $401	+10% $349
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $371	+0% $454	+5% $537	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $548	-0.5pp $501	base $454	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,500
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4822 Rural Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,995	$1.95	21d	1	0.25mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,428	$2.31	44d	3	0.30mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,246	$2.03	14d	4	0.30mi
1619 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.5	1295	$2,495	$1.93	21d	1	0.47mi
1500 Lake Park Dr SW #29 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	1428	$1,850	$1.30	21d	1	0.70mi
1653 Starlight Ln SW Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1559	$2,800	$1.80	14d	2	1.09mi
6805 Littlerock Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	1.10mi
1704 Barnes Blvd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	920	$2,004	$2.18	14d	35	1.12mi
215 Pinehurst Dr SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	759	$1,950	$2.57	14d	4	1.14mi
811 S 3rd Ave SW Unit B Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,300	$1.72	44d	1	1.14mi
6705 Linderson Way SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,038	$2.26	14d	6	1.16mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Unit 714 Tumwater, WA	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,725	$1.67	21d	1	1.26mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Unit 411 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,635	$1.79	44d	1	1.26mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,775	$1.94	14d	8	1.26mi
1255 Bay Loop SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	975	$2,400	$2.46	44d	1	1.27mi
214 65th Way SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	21d	1	1.32mi
6504 Capitol Blvd SE Tumwater, WA	1.0	1.0	974	$2,125	$2.18	14d	1	1.42mi
407 N 5th Ave SW Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	1.43mi
407 N 5th Ave SW Unit A Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	1.43mi
801 Israel Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	965	$1,860	$1.93	14d	2	1.45mi
220 Israel Rd SW Unit G8 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	968	$1,975	$2.04	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $186,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $186,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,806 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,419
• − Property taxes: −$1,806
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable income: $2,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$620
• After-tax cash flow: $4,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumwater, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $195,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,806 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.