2200 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2E · Salem, OR 97317

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Manufactured · 410 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $138/sqft · 65% above area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful bright and open 2022 Skyline home with 2 beds, 2 baths, a den and 1344sq. ft of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with high ceilings and tons of windows for lots of natural light! Home features an open kitchen with lots of cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room or whatever works for you! Master bedroom is spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet and the master bathroom has gorgeous dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Covered porch
• Carport

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEEP KITCHEN SINK
• COVERED PORCH
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 410 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 410 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,980
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 65.08%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2232 42nd Ave SE #704	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-1%)	1mo	$58,000	$45	81
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #962	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+8%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	74
3100 Turner Rd S #220	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+5%)	1mo	$199,500	$146	63
2730 Oakland Lp SE	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-9%)	6mo	$35,000	$29	59
3100 Turner Rd SE #625	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+6%)	0mo	$235,000	$171	58
2750 Oakland Loop SE	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-9%)	9mo	$40,000	$34	57
3100 Turner Rd SE #523	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-12%)	1mo	$132,000	$115	52
3100 Turner Rd SE #311	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+5%)	10mo	$155,000	$113	51
3100 Turner Rd SE #206	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	8mo	$195,000	$135	48
3180 Turner Rd SE	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	5mo	$25,000	$17	48
3554 Turner Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-9%)	1mo	$130,000	$109	46
3236 Turner Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+10%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-24,343
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,718
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $147	+0% $85	+5% $23	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $19	+0% $85	+5% $152	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $131	base $85	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	15d	1	0.30mi
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.30mi
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	45d	1	0.48mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,699	$1.84	15d	1	0.58mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	24d	1	0.84mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,799	$1.93	15d	1	0.90mi
4976 Turquoise Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	15d	5	0.95mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	45d	1	0.97mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	15d	1	1.08mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	15d	26	1.10mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	15d	1	1.12mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	24d	1	1.12mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,554	$1.67	15d	25	1.25mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4437-206 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	932	$1,525	$1.64	45d	1	1.34mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4435-201 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	888	$1,525	$1.72	24d	1	1.34mi
178 Lancaster Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	15d	1	1.41mi
4836 Tanglewood Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,150	$1.63	24d	1	1.42mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 145 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1207	$1,595	$1.32	15d	1	1.45mi
124 Stafford Ln NE Unit 124-203 Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,595	$1.52	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 410 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 407 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 406 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 405 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 399 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 398 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 397 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 396 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 392 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 391 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 390 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 389 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 388 DOM
16. 2025-09-06
    price $199,900 1164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1164 chars)

    Beautiful bright and open 2022 Skyline home with 2 beds, 2 baths, a den and 1344sq. ft of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with high ceilings and tons of windows for lots of natural light! Home features an open kitchen with lots of cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room or whatever works for you! Master bedroom is spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet and the master bathroom has gorgeous dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

17. 2025-05-19
    status Active 1164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1164 chars)

    Beautiful bright and open 2022 Skyline home with 2 beds, 2 baths, a den and 1344sq. ft of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with high ceilings and tons of windows for lots of natural light! Home features an open kitchen with lots of cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room or whatever works for you! Master bedroom is spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet and the master bathroom has gorgeous dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

18. 2025-05-17
    historical 1164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1164 chars)

    Beautiful bright and open 2022 Skyline home with 2 beds, 2 baths, a den and 1344sq. ft of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with high ceilings and tons of windows for lots of natural light! Home features an open kitchen with lots of cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room or whatever works for you! Master bedroom is spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet and the master bathroom has gorgeous dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

19. 2025-05-05
    listed $215,000 Active 1164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1164 chars)

    Beautiful bright and open 2022 Skyline home with 2 beds, 2 baths, a den and 1344sq. ft of space now available! The minute you walk into the home you are greeted with high ceilings and tons of windows for lots of natural light! Home features an open kitchen with lots of cabinets, a large kitchen island with room for seating, stainless steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink. The living room and kitchen create a nice great room so everyone can enjoy those high ceilings and natural light. Home has a den for use as an office, craft room or whatever works for you! Master bedroom is spacious with lots of light, high ceilings and a walk-in closet and the master bathroom has gorgeous dual sinks, a walk-in shower and tons of storage. Outside, you have a large 6ft. covered porch, carport with long driveway and a storage shed. The space also has low maintenance landscaping. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$470
• After-tax cash flow: $1,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022 Skyline home is in excellent condition with a fresh exterior and well-maintained interior. It offers a bright and open floor plan with modern amenities and ample natural light. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some interior updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and value.
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops can improve the kitchen's functionality and appeal.
• Both Install new flooring — New flooring can significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Updated lighting can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops can improve the kitchen's functionality and appeal. ↑
• Both Install new flooring — New flooring can significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Updated lighting can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-05 Listed $215,000 Zillow