Plan 1585 Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

$243,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily · 563 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $243,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $312,489.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 563 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $214,715 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 563 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,489
• List price: $243,995
• Delta: -21.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18226 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-1%)	10mo	$269,995	$172	70
18207 Sessile Oak Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	10mo	$269,995	$161	68
18211 Spruce Cottage Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	1mo	$282,771	$169	68
22430 Birch Bud Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	7mo	$269,995	$161	66
22110 Heartwood Elm Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+13%)	8mo	$322,858	$181	66
18207 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+13%)	8mo	$321,990	$180	61
17703 Chartertree Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+4%)	1mo	$278,900	$169	57
22606 Rosy Heights Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+6%)	2mo	$259,900	$155	54
18902 Misty Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+12%)	1mo	$415,000	$233	51
22539 Royal Pecan Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+12%)	4mo	$256,473	$144	50
18615 Scarlet Meadow Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (+12%)	0mo	$280,000	$157	42
22607 Rising Rosehill Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,816 (+15%)	8mo	$299,990	$165	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-83,874
• Equity at exit: $46,593

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-132,361
• Equity at exit: $27,018

Cash invested: $87,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,687/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,734

Max offer price $251,551

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,122
• Closing costs: $9,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,299	$1.24	3d	1	0.36mi
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,049	$1.27	5d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,995 Active 563 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,995 Active 562 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,995 Active 561 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,995 Active 560 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,995 Active 558 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,995 Active 557 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $243,995 Active 554 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,995 Active 553 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $243,995 Active 552 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $243,995 Active 549 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,995 Active 548 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,995 Active 547 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,995 Active 546 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,995 Active 545 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $243,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

16. 2026-05-10
    price $241,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

17. 2026-05-09
    price $248,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

18. 2026-05-02
    price $239,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

19. 2026-04-11
    price $237,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

20. 2026-03-24
    price $235,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

21. 2026-03-07
    price $233,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

22. 2025-12-16
    price $232,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

23. 2025-11-18
    price $237,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

24. 2025-08-29
    price $232,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

25. 2025-07-22
    price $229,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

26. 2025-07-15
    price $227,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

27. 2025-06-12
    price $224,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

28. 2025-05-17
    price $234,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

29. 2025-05-02
    price $249,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

30. 2025-01-02
    status Active 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

31. 2024-12-03
    historical 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

32. 2024-11-01
    listed $264,995 Active 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious laundry room * Extra storage space * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen island * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Splash pool * Playground * Community park * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,504
• − Property taxes: −$4,687
• − Insurance: −$1,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$9,091
• Taxable loss: −$10,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,559
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Tomball, TX is in excellent condition with good curb appeal and a well-maintained interior. It offers a spacious layout, granite countertops, and energy-efficient features. Smart home upgrades and landscaping improvements would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal
• Both Smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal ↑
• Both Smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $241,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $235,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $233,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $224,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $234,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $249,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Listed $264,995 Zillow