Is Plan 1585 Plan in Tomball, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.4% cap rate and $-481/mo modeled cash flow at a $240,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan 1585 Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,128/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.57

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.8/30.0
Schools +5.3/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
1% rule +1.8/10.0
DSCR +1.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$240,995

Plan 1585 Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily · 614 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

Spacious great room
Smart thermostat
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $241k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (11.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $212k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 614 days — a 12% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $212,075 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 614 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 4.45%
Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
DSCR: 0.71
GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $312,812
List price: $240,995
Delta: -22.96%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18207 Sessile Oak Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	11mo	$269,995	$161	67
18211 Spruce Cottage Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	2mo	$282,771	$169	66
22430 Birch Bud Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	8mo	$269,995	$161	65
22110 Heartwood Elm Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+13%)	9mo	$322,858	$181	64
18207 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+13%)	10mo	$321,990	$180	59
18314 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+12%)	1mo	$281,053	$158	57
17703 Chartertree Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+4%)	3mo	$278,900	$169	56
22606 Rosy Heights Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+6%)	4mo	$259,900	$155	52
18902 Misty Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+12%)	2mo	$415,000	$233	49
22539 Royal Pecan Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+12%)	5mo	$256,473	$144	49
18615 Scarlet Meadow Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (+12%)	2mo	$280,000	$157	41
22607 Rising Rosehill Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,816 (+15%)	10mo	$299,990	$165	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.0%
Equity multiple: 0.00×
Total profit: $-87,511
Equity at exit: $46,641

10-year hold

IRR: -54.4%
Equity multiple: -0.59×
Total profit: $-139,599
Equity at exit: $27,046

Cash invested: $87,587 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 24 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply: 9.6 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $284,500 ($171/sqft)
Median days on market: 79 d
This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +15.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

Home prices YoY: -24.5%
Rents YoY: -0.7%
Active inventory: 905
Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,128 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,640
Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,692/yr
Insurance: −$130
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
Net cashflow: $-481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,736

Max offer price $243,248

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-265	-5% $-373	+0% $-481	+5% $-589	+10% $-697
Rent	-10% $-649	-5% $-565	+0% $-481	+5% $-397	+10% $-313
Rate	-1.0pp $-323	-0.5pp $-401	base $-481	+0.5pp $-562	+1.0pp $-644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $78,203
Closing costs: $9,384
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,199	$1.19	7d	1	0.36mi
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,799	$1.12	21d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $240,995 Active 614 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $240,995 Active 612 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $240,995 Active 611 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $240,995 Active 610 DOM
2026-08-03

pricedays on market $240,995 Active 609 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $238,995 Active 606 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $238,995 Active 604 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $238,995 Active 603 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $238,995 Active 601 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $238,995 Active 599 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $238,995 Active 598 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $238,995 Active 597 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $238,995 Active 596 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $238,995 Active 595 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $238,995 Active 593 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $238,995 Active 592 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $238,995 Active 591 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $238,995 Active 590 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $238,995 Active 589 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $238,995 Active 588 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $238,995 Active 587 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $238,995 Active 586 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $238,995 Active 585 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $238,995 Active 584 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $238,995 Active 582 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $238,995 Active 581 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $238,995 Active 580 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $238,995 Active 579 DOM
2026-07-04

price $238,995 Active 578 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $243,995 Active 578 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $243,995 Active 577 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $243,995 Active 576 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $243,995 Active 575 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $243,995 Active 574 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $243,995 Active 573 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $243,995 Active 572 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $243,995 Active 571 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $243,995 Active 569 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $243,995 Active 566 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $243,995 Active 563 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $243,995 Active 562 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $243,995 Active 561 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $243,995 Active 560 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $243,995 Active 558 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $243,995 Active 557 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $243,995 Active 554 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $243,995 Active 553 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $243,995 Active 552 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $243,995 Active 549 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $243,995 Active 548 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,535
− Mortgage interest: −$17,522
− Property taxes: −$4,692
− Insurance: −$1,564
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
− Management: −$2,043
− Depreciation: −$9,100
Taxable loss: −$11,429

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,743
After-tax cash flow: $-3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Tomball, TX is in excellent condition with good curb appeal and a well-maintained interior. It offers a spacious layout, granite countertops, and energy-efficient features. Smart home upgrades and landscaping improvements would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal ↑
Both Smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rosehill El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Tomball J H C TX #333/1,662 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Tomball H S B+ TX #111/1,632 Nat'l #2,009/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Tomball ISD
NCES district ID: 4842960
Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $86,552
Composite: 58.32/100
National rank: #1014
State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

Score: 75/100
State rank: #155
US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 113,991
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 41,680
Household income: $129,327
Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
Current HPI: 235.031
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

2026-05-16 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
2026-05-10 Price Changed $241,995 Zillow
2026-05-09 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
2026-05-02 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
2026-04-11 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
2026-03-24 Price Changed $235,995 Zillow
2026-03-07 Price Changed $233,995 Zillow
2025-12-16 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
2025-11-18 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
2025-08-29 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
2025-07-22 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
2025-07-15 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
2025-06-12 Price Changed $224,995 Zillow
2025-05-17 Price Changed $234,995 Zillow
2025-05-02 Price Changed $249,995 Zillow
2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
2024-11-01 Listed $264,995 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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