Plan 1585 Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

$242,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily · 661 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $242,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $312,513.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-452 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1061 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 661 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $213,835 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 661 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,513
• List price: $242,995
• Delta: -22.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18207 Sessile Oak Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	13mo	$269,995	$161	66
18211 Spruce Cottage Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	4mo	$282,771	$169	65
22430 Birch Bud Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+6%)	10mo	$269,995	$161	64
22110 Heartwood Elm Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+13%)	11mo	$322,858	$181	63
18207 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+13%)	12mo	$321,990	$180	58
18314 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+12%)	2mo	$281,053	$158	56
17703 Chartertree Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+4%)	5mo	$278,900	$169	54
22606 Rosy Heights Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+6%)	5mo	$259,900	$155	51
18902 Misty Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+12%)	4mo	$415,000	$233	48
22539 Royal Pecan Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+12%)	7mo	$256,473	$144	48
18615 Scarlet Meadow Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (+12%)	4mo	$280,000	$157	40
22607 Rising Rosehill Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,816 (+15%)	12mo	$299,990	$165	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-85,736
• Equity at exit: $46,597

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-136,083
• Equity at exit: $27,020

Cash invested: $87,504 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $284,500 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1061
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,688/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,734

Max offer price $247,095

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-236	-5% $-344	+0% $-452	+5% $-560	+10% $-668
Rent	-10% $-623	-5% $-537	+0% $-452	+5% $-367	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-295	-0.5pp $-373	base $-452	+0.5pp $-533	+1.0pp $-615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,128
• Closing costs: $9,375
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,199	$1.19	54d	1	0.36mi
17827 Pamukkale Pl Tomball, TX	4.0	3.0	2121	$2,425	$1.14	36d	1	0.77mi
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,799	$1.12	67d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $242,995 Active 661 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $242,995 Active 660 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $242,995 Active 659 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $242,995 Active 658 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $242,995 Active 657 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $242,995 Active 656 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $242,995 Active 655 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $242,995 Active 654 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $242,995 Active 653 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $242,995 Active 652 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $242,995 Active 651 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $242,995 Active 650 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $242,995 Active 649 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $242,995 Active 642 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $242,995 Active 641 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $242,995 Active 640 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $242,995 Active 637 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $242,995 Active 635 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $242,995 Active 634 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $242,995 Active 633 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $242,995 Active 631 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $242,995 Active 630 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $242,995 Active 629 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $242,995 Active 628 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $242,995 Active 627 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $242,995 Active 626 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $242,995 Active 625 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $242,995 Active 624 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $242,995 Active 623 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $242,995 Active 622 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $242,995 Active 621 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    price $242,995 Active 620 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $240,995 Active 620 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $240,995 Active 619 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $240,995 Active 618 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $240,995 Active 617 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $240,995 Active 616 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $240,995 Active 615 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $240,995 Active 614 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $240,995 Active 612 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $240,995 Active 611 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $240,995 Active 610 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $240,995 Active 609 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $238,995 Active 606 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $238,995 Active 604 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $238,995 Active 603 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $238,995 Active 601 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $238,995 Active 599 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $238,995 Active 598 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $238,995 Active 597 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,506
• − Property taxes: −$4,688
• − Insurance: −$1,563
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − Depreciation: −$9,091
• Taxable loss: −$11,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,654
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Tomball, TX is in excellent condition with good curb appeal and a well-maintained interior. It offers a spacious layout, granite countertops, and energy-efficient features. Smart home upgrades and landscaping improvements would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal ↑
• Both Smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rosehill El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Tomball J H C TX #333/1,662 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Tomball H S B+ TX #111/1,632 Nat'l #2,009/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $241,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $235,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $233,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $224,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $234,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $249,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Listed $264,995 Zillow