9383 Bald Eagle Rd · White Mountain Lake, AZ 85901

$175,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1988 20 ac lot $223/sqft · 20% below area Est $220k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 20.38 private acres in the White Mountain Lake area, this 728 sq ft 1 bed/1 bath home has been fully gutted to the studs and is ready for a complete re-imagining. The property already includes a permitted septic system (1,000 gal, rated for 3BD/2BA), a well (165 ft deep, water at 90 ft, ½ HP 110V motor), and a $40,000 solar array needing a new actuator--giving you a powerful head start on an off-grid rebuild. Don't Bother Tenant on the property! Must be accompanied by a Realtor to view the property!

Key facts

• Private acres
• Solar array
• 20.38 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• PERMITTED SEPTIC SYSTEM
• SOLAR ARRAY

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $175,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$220,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in White Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#141 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $175k implies a 665% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,360 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -20.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-25,680
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,848
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $175,000 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Set on 20.38 private acres in the White Mountain Lake area, this 728 sq ft 1 bed/1 bath home has been fully gutted to the studs and is ready for a complete re-imagining. The property already includes a permitted septic system (1,000 gal, rated for 3BD/2BA), a well (165 ft deep, water at 90 ft, ½ HP 110V motor), and a $40,000 solar array needing a new actuator--giving you a powerful head start on an off-grid rebuild. Don't Bother Tenant on the property! Must be accompanied by a Realtor to view the property!

18. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $22,875 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    1988 Palm Harbor Mobile Home located on 20 acres. Bring your toys and enjoy the benefits of country living. Property is located 3 miles off paved roads in the beautiful White Mountains. Property has a well (registered) and septic (permitted). Buyer to verify the septic and well's condition. Sold As-Is, no trash out will be done.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$583
• After-tax cash flow: $1,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — White Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #16914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+665.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $175,000 WMMLS
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $22,875 WMMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $273 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.