43599 W Sagebrush Trl · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2002 6,168 sqft lot $174/sqft · 10% below area Est $321k · 10% under $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 4 bedroom 2 bath bank owned property. Home is move-in ready!! Great room floor plan includes spacious kitchen with extended breakfast bar. Seller is selling the property in ''As Is'' condition with no warranties either expressed nor implied. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Built in coffee bar
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BUILT IN COFFEE BAR
• LARGE BAR TOP
• NATURAL LIGHT
• RECENTLY PAINTED
• BRAND NEW CARPET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include golf, lake, playground, and biking/walking paths; Homeowners association with quarterly fee (includes grounds maintenance); No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat rule

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Desert landscaping in front and back; Grass in back; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Granite counters; Double vanity; Master bedroom on main level; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Pantry; Primary bedroom with full bath; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rosa Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 50% FRL); Maricopa Wells Middle School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #143 of 218 statewide, top 66%, 934 students, 57% FRL); Maricopa High School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 2,188 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 845 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $290k implies a 287% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,381 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,757
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -9.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43626 W Colby Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+1%)	1mo	$298,499	$177	94
43343 W Chisholm Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-4%)	1mo	$330,000	$206	82
21563 N Greenway Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-3%)	1mo	$335,000	$206	78
21221 N Jubilee Pl	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (+1%)	0mo	$345,990	$204	71
44106 W Kramer Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-2%)	0mo	$261,250	$160	70
21171 N Jubilee Pl	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-3%)	2mo	$327,445	$203	66
42671 W Anne Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-9%)	2mo	$305,000	$200	56
43843 W Roth Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+13%)	1mo	$385,000	$204	56
42806 W Whispering Wind Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-5%)	1mo	$325,000	$205	54
44729 W Alamendras St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+5%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	51
21197 N Jubilee Pl	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+14%)	1mo	$347,200	$182	49
44188 W Cydnee Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,917 (+15%)	1mo	$287,000	$150	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,135
• Equity at exit: $71,544

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-46,254
• Equity at exit: $76,469

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,037/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,358

Max offer price $236,291

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43697 W Sagebrush Trl Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1981	$1,600	$0.81	24d	1	0.08mi
21338 N Keystone Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,475	$1.16	43d	1	0.13mi
43683 W Elm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,665	$1.48	5d	1	0.16mi
43207 W Lindgren Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,699	$0.89	43d	1	0.25mi
43839 W Rio Grande Dr Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1462	$1,650	$1.13	5d	1	0.25mi
21426 N Duncan Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,599	$1.29	43d	1	0.27mi
21061 N Bustos Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,749	$0.92	43d	1	0.29mi
43878 W Wade Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,750	$1.04	2d	1	0.34mi
43854 W Cahill Dr Unit 1545679P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,258	$1.34	15d	1	0.37mi
20793 N Marquez Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,550	$1.08	43d	1	0.41mi
21047 N Alma Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,995	$1.23	43d	1	0.43mi
44212 W Cydnee Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,700	$1.18	43d	1	0.46mi
43205 W Roth Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2216	$2,100	$0.95	11d	1	0.48mi
43205 W Roth Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2215	$2,200	$0.99	43d	1	0.48mi
43332 W Griffis Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2235	$4,200	$1.88	43d	1	0.52mi
43849 W Kramer Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,895	$1.01	17d	1	0.53mi
19696 N Madison Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2219	$3,400	$1.53	24d	1	0.53mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	24d	1	0.67mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	43d	1	0.67mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	20d	1	0.67mi
44812 W Paraiso Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,595	$1.13	3d	1	0.77mi
44456 W Eddie Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,695	$1.01	44d	1	0.78mi
44871 W Gavilan Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,595	$1.25	2d	1	0.85mi
43368 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,889	$0.86	43d	1	0.87mi
22156 N Sunset Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2112	$2,100	$0.99	1d	1	0.87mi
22641 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2169	$1,699	$0.78	44d	1	0.87mi
43194 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,850	$0.96	15d	1	0.91mi
43914 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2168	$2,070	$0.95	43d	1	0.91mi
42826 W Darter Dr Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1596	$1,875	$1.17	24d	1	0.93mi
42416 W Heavenly Pl Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1542	$1,850	$1.20	43d	1	0.93mi
21619 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1938	$3,500	$1.81	3d	1	0.95mi
43223 W Neely Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2223	$2,900	$1.30	16d	1	0.96mi
42348 W Fountainhead St Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1700	$2,600	$1.53	43d	1	0.99mi
45023 W Miramar Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1653	$3,000	$1.81	43d	1	1.01mi
44171 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,100	$0.97	1d	1	1.01mi
45192 W Alamendras St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	1.5	1461	$1,600	$1.10	24d	1	1.02mi
42780 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,700	$1.14	24d	1	1.03mi
42181 W Basie Ln Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1491	$1,674	$1.12	24d	1	1.03mi
42181 W Basie Ln Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1491	$1,674	$1.12	20d	1	1.03mi
20580 N Confetti Ct Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1905	$2,550	$1.34	24d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $299,900 Active 706-char remark
16. 2009-06-16
    soldstatus $75,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Nice 4 bedroom 2 bath bank owned property. Home is move-in ready!! Great room floor plan includes spacious kitchen with extended breakfast bar. Seller is selling the property in ''As Is'' condition with no warranties either expressed nor implied. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

17. 2009-05-13
    historical 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Nice 4 bedroom 2 bath bank owned property. Home is move-in ready!! Great room floor plan includes spacious kitchen with extended breakfast bar. Seller is selling the property in ''As Is'' condition with no warranties either expressed nor implied. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

18. 2009-04-29
    listed $71,726 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Nice 4 bedroom 2 bath bank owned property. Home is move-in ready!! Great room floor plan includes spacious kitchen with extended breakfast bar. Seller is selling the property in ''As Is'' condition with no warranties either expressed nor implied. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

19. 2009-03-27
    historical
20. 2008-05-17
    listed $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,037
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$8,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,133
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+222.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $289,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2009-06-16 Sold (MLS) $75,000 ARMLS
• 2009-05-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-04-29 Listed $71,726 ARMLS
• 2009-03-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-05-17 Listed $90,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,037 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.