2846 Circle Ridge Dr · Lakeside, FL 32065

$5,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Expect to be impressed with this meticulously maintained brick home with 2378 square feet of living space and a sparkling in-ground pool. New roof 2012, updated kitchen & baths with granite and seamless glass shower, lots of closet storgage, wood burning fireplace, spacious family room with cathedral ceiling, formal dining & living, crown molding throughout, ceramic tile and laminate flooring. Screened porch overlooks your backyard oasis with refreshing pool and private mature tree landscape. New windows 2011, recent HVAC & water heater, sprinkler system and so much more - see documents tab.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1984
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Blanding Blvd south to right on Foxridge, left on Circle Ridge to Foxridge by the lake, right on Circle Ridge

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.35 acre; Zoned SFR

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: One-story layout

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$425,662) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 433.6% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 45.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 433.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1526.09%
• DSCR: 68.90
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $425,662
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2880 Circle Ridge Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,315 (-3%)	2mo	$415,000	$179	82
2852 Circle Ridge Dr	0.05mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+2%)	8mo	$460,000	$189	80
2894 Circle Ridge Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,242 (-6%)	3mo	$390,000	$174	77
2494 Stonebridge Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,294 (-4%)	0mo	$353,000	$154	77
2911 Circle Ridge Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,568 (+8%)	8mo	$425,000	$165	69
946 Cedar Ridge Ct	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,092 (-12%)	8mo	$475,000	$227	65
3064 Moody Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,315 (-3%)	3mo	$450,000	$194	56
2527 Bottomridge Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,188 (-8%)	3mo	$281,500	$129	54
2305 Locustwood Ct	0.44mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,635 (+11%)	9mo	$427,000	$162	49
985 Sweetwood Ct	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,065 (-13%)	2mo	$369,900	$179	47
2453 Charwood Ct	0.54mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,648 (+11%)	3mo	$475,000	$179	44
3068 Moody Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,108 (-11%)	6mo	$566,000	$269	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 79.66×
• Total profit: $110,129
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 175.18×
• Total profit: $243,851
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32065

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $128

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2391 Stonebridge Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,816	$0.98	23d	1	0.36mi
589 Robert Livingston St Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,019	$1.15	10d	1	0.37mi
579 Charles Pinckney St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,985	$1.21	23d	1	0.42mi
543 Charles Pinckney St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1779	$1,850	$1.04	23d	1	0.53mi
2375 Kirkwall St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,850	$1.12	23d	1	0.71mi
3150 Highland Grove Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	3.0	1987	$2,300	$1.16	10d	1	0.80mi
603 Thornwood Ln Orange Park, FL	5.0	3.0	3066	$3,750	$1.22	23d	1	1.46mi
2048 Pompano Pkwy Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1904	$1,300	$0.68	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $5,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $5,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $5,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $5,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-05-25
   listed $5,000 Active
6. 2025-05-21
   historical
7. 2025-05-19
   listed $180,000 New
8. 2015-07-24
   soldstatus $218,000
9. 2015-07-17
   soldstatus $218,000 Sold 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   Expect to be impressed with this meticulously maintained brick home with 2378 square feet of living space and a sparkling in-ground pool. New roof 2012, updated kitchen & baths with granite and seamless glass shower, lots of closet storgage, wood burning fireplace, spacious family room with cathedral ceiling, formal dining & living, crown molding throughout, ceramic tile and laminate flooring. Screened porch overlooks your backyard oasis with refreshing pool and private mature tree landscape. New windows 2011, recent HVAC & water heater, sprinkler system and so much more - see documents tab.

10. 2015-06-22
    status Pending 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Expect to be impressed with this meticulously maintained brick home with 2378 square feet of living space and a sparkling in-ground pool. New roof 2012, updated kitchen & baths with granite and seamless glass shower, lots of closet storgage, wood burning fireplace, spacious family room with cathedral ceiling, formal dining & living, crown molding throughout, ceramic tile and laminate flooring. Screened porch overlooks your backyard oasis with refreshing pool and private mature tree landscape. New windows 2011, recent HVAC & water heater, sprinkler system and so much more - see documents tab.

11. 2015-06-04
    historical Active - Contingent 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Expect to be impressed with this meticulously maintained brick home with 2378 square feet of living space and a sparkling in-ground pool. New roof 2012, updated kitchen & baths with granite and seamless glass shower, lots of closet storgage, wood burning fireplace, spacious family room with cathedral ceiling, formal dining & living, crown molding throughout, ceramic tile and laminate flooring. Screened porch overlooks your backyard oasis with refreshing pool and private mature tree landscape. New windows 2011, recent HVAC & water heater, sprinkler system and so much more - see documents tab.

12. 2015-05-30
    status Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Expect to be impressed with this meticulously maintained brick home with 2378 square feet of living space and a sparkling in-ground pool. New roof 2012, updated kitchen & baths with granite and seamless glass shower, lots of closet storgage, wood burning fireplace, spacious family room with cathedral ceiling, formal dining & living, crown molding throughout, ceramic tile and laminate flooring. Screened porch overlooks your backyard oasis with refreshing pool and private mature tree landscape. New windows 2011, recent HVAC & water heater, sprinkler system and so much more - see documents tab.

13. 2015-05-22
    historical Active - Contingent 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Expect to be impressed with this meticulously maintained brick home with 2378 square feet of living space and a sparkling in-ground pool. New roof 2012, updated kitchen & baths with granite and seamless glass shower, lots of closet storgage, wood burning fireplace, spacious family room with cathedral ceiling, formal dining & living, crown molding throughout, ceramic tile and laminate flooring. Screened porch overlooks your backyard oasis with refreshing pool and private mature tree landscape. New windows 2011, recent HVAC & water heater, sprinkler system and so much more - see documents tab.

14. 2015-05-15
    listed $225,000 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Expect to be impressed with this meticulously maintained brick home with 2378 square feet of living space and a sparkling in-ground pool. New roof 2012, updated kitchen & baths with granite and seamless glass shower, lots of closet storgage, wood burning fireplace, spacious family room with cathedral ceiling, formal dining & living, crown molding throughout, ceramic tile and laminate flooring. Screened porch overlooks your backyard oasis with refreshing pool and private mature tree landscape. New windows 2011, recent HVAC & water heater, sprinkler system and so much more - see documents tab.

15. 1990-06-19
    soldstatus $140,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $21,835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,240
• After-tax cash flow: $15,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,578
• Household income: $97,455
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.13%
• Current HPI: 276.5987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-96.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $180,000 GAMLS
• 2015-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) $218,000 realMLS
• 2015-06-22 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-06-04 Contingent — realMLS
• 2015-05-30 Relisted — realMLS
• 2015-05-22 Contingent — realMLS
• 2015-05-15 Listed $225,000 realMLS
• 1990-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $140,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,228 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.