1204 Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$88,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2019 Good condition $99/sqft · 20% below area Est $111k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.5

Listing remarks

WELCOME HOME to this bright and inviting 3 bedroom, 2 bath singlewide mobile home located in Kingman Ranch Mobile Home Park! The open living and dining areas are filled with natural light from multiple windows and feature attractive wood-look laminate flooring, while the bedrooms offer plush carpet for added comfort. The kitchen flows nicely into the living space and includes black appliances that convey with the home, including the refrigerator, dishwasher, gas stove and microwave. The washer and dryer are also included and are conveniently located in the interior hallway laundry area.

Key facts

• Black appliances
• Covered front porch
• Tuff shed

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• TUFF SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.5% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cerbat Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #963 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 700 students, 78% FRL); Kingman Middle School (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 737 students, 74% FRL); Kingman High School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 905 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kingman Unified School District (79598) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1090 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $614 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,136 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.31%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,700
• List price: $88,800
• Delta: -19.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5178 N Edie Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+9%)	6mo	$115,900	$118	62
5029 N Huffman Rd	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	980 (+9%)	5mo	$154,900	$158	60
1200 E Potter Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	938 (+4%)	10mo	$105,000	$112	57
1245 E Mcvicar Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	980 (+9%)	21mo	$60,000	$61	56
4954 Scotty Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (+3%)	18mo	$116,000	$126	56
4762 N Kelli Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	924 (+3%)	9mo	$95,000	$103	53
4851 N Sierra Rd	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+7%)	11mo	$147,000	$153	53
2085 E Packard Ave	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+7%)	3mo	$149,900	$156	49
2110 E Packard Ave	0.75mi	2/1.5 (-1)	937 (+4%)	4mo	$128,000	$137	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-3,509
• Equity at exit: $13,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $3,868
• Equity at exit: $7,678

Cash invested: $24,864 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $94,500 ($105/sqft)
• Median days on market: 155 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1090
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,332/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $777

Max offer price $88,800

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $244	+0% $214	+5% $183	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $131	-5% $172	+0% $214	+5% $255	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $236	base $214	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,200
• Closing costs: $2,664
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1230 E Suffock Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	550	$850	$1.55	51d	1	0.38mi
1745 E Potter Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,300	$1.22	12d	1	0.56mi
1745 E Potter Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,300	$1.22	10d	1	0.56mi
1745 E Potter Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,300	$1.22	9d	1	0.56mi
2480 E Carver Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,100	$1.31	10d	1	0.97mi
2570 E Ames Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	1.0	728	$900	$1.24	51d	1	1.09mi
2420 E John L Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	1056	$630	$0.60	10d	1	1.30mi
2810 E Lass Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	995	$1,275	$1.28	21d	1	1.38mi
2810 E Lass Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	995	$1,275	$1.28	10d	1	1.38mi
2835 E Snavely Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	37d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RMH (Residential Mobile Homes)
• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: ClubhouseSidewalksCurbsSenior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)Detached parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer220 volt electricNatural gas available
• Home design: Faces westSingle wide manufactured homeResidential / Manufactured Home
• Construction: Shingle roofHas home warranty
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioPrivate outdoor poolPool is gunite, fenced, and gas heatedShed(s)Has viewWater-smart landscapingPaved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigerator
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central airElectric coolingCeiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fansLaminate countersOpen floorplanVaulted ceilingsWalk-in closetsWindow coveringsPartially furnishedAccessible full bathroomENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWater heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $88,800 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $88,800 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $88,800 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $88,800 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $88,800 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $88,800 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $88,800 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $88,800 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $88,800 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $88,800 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $88,800 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $88,800 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $88,800 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $88,800 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $88,800 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $88,800 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $88,800 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $88,800 Active 35 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $88,800 Active 34 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $88,800 Active 33 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $88,800 Active 32 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $88,800 Active 31 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $88,800 Active 30 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $88,800 Active 29 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $88,800 Active 28 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $88,800 Active 27 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $88,800 Active 26 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $88,800 Active 25 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $88,800 Active 24 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $88,800 Active 23 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $88,800 Active 22 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $88,800 Active 21 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $88,800 Active 20 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $88,800 Active 19 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $88,800 Active 18 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $88,800 Active 17 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $88,800 Active 16 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $88,800 Active 15 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $88,800 Active 14 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $88,800 Active 13 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $88,800 Active 12 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $88,800 Active 11 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $88,800 Active 10 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $88,800 Active 9 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $88,800 Active 8 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $88,800 Active 7 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $88,800 Active 6 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $88,800 Active 5 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $88,800 Active 4 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $88,800 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,974
• − Property taxes: −$1,332
• − Insurance: −$444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$2,583
• Taxable income: $1,222
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$293
• After-tax cash flow: $2,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2019 manufactured home is in excellent condition, ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, HVAC, and outdoor space can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants or buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially for rental properties. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cerbat Elementary F AZ #963/1,109 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Kingman Middle School F AZ #180/218 Nat'l #13,186/14,009 High Kingman High School F AZ #364/381 Nat'l #16,861/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 209,184 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RMH (Residential Mobile Homes)
• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: ClubhouseSidewalksCurbsSenior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)Detached parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer220 volt electricNatural gas available
• Home design: Faces westSingle wide manufactured homeResidential / Manufactured Home
• Construction: Shingle roofHas home warranty
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioPrivate outdoor poolPool is gunite, fenced, and gas heatedShed(s)Has viewWater-smart landscapingPaved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigerator
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central airElectric coolingCeiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fansLaminate countersOpen floorplanVaulted ceilingsWalk-in closetsWindow coveringsPartially furnishedAccessible full bathroomENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWater heater

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-16 Listed $88,800 WARDEX
• 2026-06-29 Price Changed $99,500 WARDEX
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $104,900 WARDEX
• 2026-04-07 Listed $108,000 WARDEX
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $115,000 WARDEX
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $119,900 WARDEX
• 2025-05-16 Listed $122,000 WARDEX
• 2024-03-14 Listed $120,000 WARDEX
• 2022-07-20 Sold (MLS) $114,900 WARDEX
• 2022-06-11 Listed $114,900 WARDEX
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $93,950 WARDEX
• 2021-08-11 Listed $95,900 WARDEX
• 2021-05-21 Listed $89,900 WARDEX
• 2020-08-17 Listed $87,500 WARDEX