1204 Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 8/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 100°F)
- 9 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +26.1/30.0
- ARV discount +13.9/15.0
- DSCR +8.8/10.0
- 1% rule +7.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.6/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.0/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -5.5
$99,500
1204 Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured
· 123 Days on market
Manufactured home
Built 2019
$111/sqft
· 14% below area
Est $116k · 14% under
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
This manufactured home, built in 2019, offers an inviting atmosphere, ready for immediate occupancy. It provides a thoughtfully designed living space encompassing 896 square feet. The living room provides a welcoming expanse for relaxation and daily activities, featuring a vaulted ceiling that enhances the sense of openness and airiness. Culinary endeavors are well-supported in the kitchen, which showcases elegant cabinets, providing both aesthetic appeal and practical storage solutions. One of the three bedrooms features an exclusive ensuite bathroom, a private retreat complete with a walk-in shower, offering a refreshing start or end to any day.
Key facts
- Community pool
- Built 2019
- Listed 122 days
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
- Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.6% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Cerbat Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #963 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 700 students, 78% FRL); Kingman Middle School (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 737 students, 74% FRL); Kingman High School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 905 students, 50% FRL).
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kingman Unified School District (79598) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 819 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$87,560
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.20% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.33%
- Cash-on-cash
- 10.86%
- DSCR
- 1.48
- GRM
- 7.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $115,900
- List price
- $99,500
- Delta
- -14.15%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 17 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5178 N Edie Dr | 0.18mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 980 (+9%) | 4mo | $115,900 | $118 | 64 |
| 5029 N Huffman Rd | 0.30mi | 2/1.5 (-1) | 980 (+9%) | 2mo | $154,900 | $158 | 61 |
| 1180 E Jagerson Ave | 0.18mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 931 (+4%) | 23mo | $106,000 | $114 | 61 |
| 1200 E Potter Ave | 0.48mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 938 (+5%) | 8mo | $105,000 | $112 | 58 |
| 1245 E Mcvicar Ave | 0.26mi | 3/2.0 | 980 (+9%) | 18mo | $60,000 | $61 | 58 |
| 4954 Scotty Dr | 0.41mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 924 (+3%) | 16mo | $116,000 | $126 | 58 |
| 4762 N Kelli Ln | 0.74mi | 3/2.0 | 924 (+3%) | 6mo | $95,000 | $103 | 55 |
| 4851 N Sierra Rd | 0.48mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 960 (+7%) | 8mo | $147,000 | $153 | 54 |
| 2110 E Packard Ave | 0.75mi | 2/1.5 (-1) | 937 (+5%) | 1mo | $128,000 | $137 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -3.1%
- Equity multiple
- 0.89×
- Total profit
- $-3,156
- Equity at exit
- $14,836
10-year hold
- IRR
- 3.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.21×
- Total profit
- $5,898
- Equity at exit
- $8,603
Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 9 active · 5 under contract
- Months of supply
- 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $103,500 ($100/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 81 d
- This list price
- 44% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +29.5% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 86409
- Rents YoY
- 0.3%
- Active inventory
- 819
- Price-to-rent
- 7.0×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,190 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$522
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$124 /mo · $1,492/yr
- Insurance
- −$41
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$250
- Net cashflow
- $252
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$870
Max offer price
$99,500
Occupancy floor
74%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $321 | -5% $287 | +0% $252 | +5% $218 | +10% $183 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $158 | -5% $205 | +0% $252 | +5% $299 | +10% $346 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $302 | -0.5pp $277 | base $252 | +0.5pp $226 | +1.0pp $200 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $24,875
- Closing costs
- $2,985
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Community clubhouseSidewalksSenior community
Exterior
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas availableLand is leased
- Home design
- Manufactured home (single wide)Mobile dimensions approximately 56' x 16'Residential property typeZoned for residential mobile homes (RMH)
- Construction
- Shingle roof
- Exterior features
- Covered patioPatioShed(s)Community poolPrivate maintained road
Interior
- Kitchen
- Gas oven and gas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorLaminate counters
- Flooring
- CarpetLaminate
- Bathrooms
- 1 full bathroom1 three-quarter bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Ceiling fans
- Interior features
- Ceiling fansLaminate countertopsVaulted ceilingsWalk-in closetsWindow coveringsAccessible full bathroom
- Laundry & utility
- Washer and dryer includedLaundry located insideWater heater
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $99,500 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $99,500 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $99,500 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $99,500 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $99,500 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $99,500 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $99,500 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $99,500 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $99,500 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $99,500 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $99,500 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $99,500 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $99,500 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $99,500 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $99,500 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $99,500 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $99,500 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $99,500 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $99,500 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $99,500 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $99,500 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $99,500 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $99,500 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $99,500 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-07-08days on market $99,500 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $99,500 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $99,500 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $99,500 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-04days on market $99,500 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $99,500 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $99,500 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $99,500 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $99,500 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-06-30price $99,500 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $104,900 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $104,900 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $104,900 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $104,900 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $104,900 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $104,900 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $104,900 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $104,900 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $104,900 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $104,900 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $104,900 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $104,900 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $104,900 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $104,900 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $104,900 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $104,900 Active 61 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 8/10 Severe
- Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $14,276
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,574
- − Property taxes
- −$1,492
- − Insurance
- −$498
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,142
- − Management
- −$1,142
- − Depreciation
- −$2,895
- Taxable income
- $1,533
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$368
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,658/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
None rehab
This 2019 manufactured home is in excellent condition, ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, HVAC, and outdoor space can further enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
- Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants or buyers. ↑
- Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially for rental properties. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Cerbat Elementary
F
AZ #963/1,109
Nat'l #38,100/41,679
Middle
Kingman Middle School
F
AZ #180/218
Nat'l #13,186/14,009
High
Kingman High School
F
AZ #364/381
Nat'l #16,861/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Kingman Unified School District (79598)
- NCES district ID
- 0400295
- Math proficiency
- 19% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 24% ▼ -9.00%
- Median HH income
- $36,760
- Composite
- 17.87/100
- National rank
- #9002
- State rank
- #179 of 249 in AZ
Livability — New Kingman-Butler
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Census place
- New Kingman-Butler, AZ
- County
- Mohave County · 209,184 people
- Metro
- Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 30,365
- Household income
- $50,852
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 9% of renters
Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 209,184 people
- By 2030
- 209,674 · +0.2%
- By 2040
- 205,897 · -1.6%
- By 2050
- 196,810 · -5.9%
- By 2075
- 169,454 · -19.0%
- By 2100
- 136,630 · -34.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (76%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 12%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 7%
Political lean MEDSL · Mohave
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -158.90%
- Current HPI
- 280.1884
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.33%
- Metro
- Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
+13.7% since first listed13 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-29 Price Changed $99,500 WARDEX
- 2026-06-03 Price Changed $104,900 WARDEX
- 2026-04-07 Listed $108,000 WARDEX
- 2026-01-24 Price Changed $115,000 WARDEX
- 2025-07-20 Price Changed $119,900 WARDEX
- 2025-05-16 Listed $122,000 WARDEX
- 2024-03-14 Listed $120,000 WARDEX
- 2022-07-20 Sold (MLS) $114,900 WARDEX
- 2022-06-11 Listed $114,900 WARDEX
- 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $93,950 WARDEX
- 2021-08-11 Listed $95,900 WARDEX
- 2021-05-21 Listed $89,900 WARDEX
- 2020-08-17 Listed $87,500 WARDEX
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…