1204 Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$104,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition $117/sqft · at area comps Est $101k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This manufactured home, built in 2019, offers an inviting atmosphere, ready for immediate occupancy. It provides a thoughtfully designed living space encompassing 896 square feet. The living room provides a welcoming expanse for relaxation and daily activities, featuring a vaulted ceiling that enhances the sense of openness and airiness. Culinary endeavors are well-supported in the kitchen, which showcases elegant cabinets, providing both aesthetic appeal and practical storage solutions. One of the three bedrooms features an exclusive ensuite bathroom, a private retreat complete with a walk-in shower, offering a refreshing start or end to any day. The two additional bedrooms present versatile spaces, ideal for personal comfort or adaptable to various needs, each contributing to the home's practical layout. An accompanying shed on the property offers convenient external storage, providing practical utility for various items and contributing to an organized living environment. The park offers a well appointed clubhouse great for making new friends and a community pool and spa for those hot summer days. This carefully appointed residence presents an exceptional opportunity for a distinguished lifestyle in Kingman's Premier 55+ community.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2019
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 643 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.95%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,172
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: 3.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5178 N Edie Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+9%)	2mo	$115,900	$118	65
5029 N Huffman Rd	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	980 (+9%)	1mo	$154,900	$158	63
1180 E Jagerson Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	931 (+4%)	21mo	$106,000	$114	62
1200 E Potter Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	938 (+5%)	6mo	$105,000	$112	60
1245 E Mcvicar Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	980 (+9%)	16mo	$60,000	$61	59
4954 Scotty Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (+3%)	14mo	$116,000	$126	59
4762 N Kelli Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	924 (+3%)	5mo	$95,000	$103	56
4851 N Sierra Rd	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+7%)	6mo	$147,000	$153	56
1160 E Suffock Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (+3%)	23mo	$155,000	$168	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $11,589
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $36,300
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $585	-5% $549	+0% $513	+5% $477	+10% $440
Rent	-10% $389	-5% $451	+0% $513	+5% $575	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $540	base $513	+0.5pp $486	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $104,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $108,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-07
    listed $108,000 Active 1254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1254 chars)

    This manufactured home, built in 2019, offers an inviting atmosphere, ready for immediate occupancy. It provides a thoughtfully designed living space encompassing 896 square feet. The living room provides a welcoming expanse for relaxation and daily activities, featuring a vaulted ceiling that enhances the sense of openness and airiness. Culinary endeavors are well-supported in the kitchen, which showcases elegant cabinets, providing both aesthetic appeal and practical storage solutions. One of the three bedrooms features an exclusive ensuite bathroom, a private retreat complete with a walk-in shower, offering a refreshing start or end to any day. The two additional bedrooms present versatile spaces, ideal for personal comfort or adaptable to various needs, each contributing to the home's practical layout. An accompanying shed on the property offers convenient external storage, providing practical utility for various items and contributing to an organized living environment. The park offers a well appointed clubhouse great for making new friends and a community pool and spa for those hot summer days. This carefully appointed residence presents an exceptional opportunity for a distinguished lifestyle in Kingman's Premier 55+ community.

18. 2026-01-24
    price $115,000
19. 2025-07-20
    price $119,900
20. 2025-05-16
    listed $122,000 Active
21. 2024-03-14
    listed $120,000 Active
22. 2022-07-20
    soldstatus $114,900
23. 2022-06-11
    listed $114,900
24. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus $93,950
25. 2021-08-11
    listed $95,900
26. 2021-05-21
    listed $89,900
27. 2020-08-17
    listed $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $4,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,144
• After-tax cash flow: $5,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2019 manufactured home is in excellent condition, ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, HVAC, and outdoor space can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants or buyers.
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially for rental properties.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants or buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 688.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+23.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $108,000 WARDEX
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $115,000 WARDEX
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $119,900 WARDEX
• 2025-05-16 Listed $122,000 WARDEX
• 2024-03-14 Listed $120,000 WARDEX
• 2022-07-20 Sold (MLS) $114,900 WARDEX
• 2022-06-11 Listed $114,900 WARDEX
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $93,950 WARDEX
• 2021-08-11 Listed $95,900 WARDEX
• 2021-05-21 Listed $89,900 WARDEX
• 2020-08-17 Listed $87,500 WARDEX