232 San Marino Ave · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$209,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 929 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1973 7,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity in Warm Mineral Springs! 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms, ceramic tile floors throughout the house, brand new AC in 2023, new roof in 2021, most windows were replaced in 2017 and are hurricane impact, newer water treatment, back yard is completely fenced in with chain link fence, adjacent lot is also available to purchase

Key facts

• Ceramic tile floors
• Brand new ac
• New roof

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORS
• BRAND NEW AC
• NEW ROOF
• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS
• NEWER WATER TREATMENT
• BACK YARD FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (RSF3)
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; 1 story; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.17-acre (75 x 100) lot
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $209k implies a 410% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,646 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-46,575
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-68,291
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,636 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,088/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,802

Max offer price $185,899

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 343-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $209,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,088 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,088 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 93% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,088
• − Insurance: −$1,842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$5,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+596.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-07 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1977-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,088 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.