1000 E Central Ave #21 · Sutherlin, OR 97479

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2007 $75/sqft · 6% above area Est $122k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an especially nice, clean home that offers a spacious, well-thought-out layout that's perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a true highlight packed with generous cupboard storage (including convenient pull-out shelves) and featuring an island that's great for meal prep and extra counter space. Vaulted ceilings make the main living areas feel even more open and inviting. The large master suite is complete with a walk-in shower and a handicap accessible soaking tub. The home is designed with accessibility in mind including a wheelchair ramp, wheelchair elevator, and wide open spaces and doorways that are easy to navigate. The second bathroom also features a walk-in shower for added comfort and convenience. There is also a dedicated laundry room with an additional water heater, plenty of space for guests, and ample off-street parking with a convenient 2 car carport. Don't miss out on this exceptional home on a desirable lot in a nice park. Schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Island for meal prep
• Pull-out shelves
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• GENEROUS CUPBOARD STORAGE
• PULL-OUT SHELVES
• ISLAND FOR MEAL PREP
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $130k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.71%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,297
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 6.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 E Central Ave #84	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+3%)	3mo	$90,000	$51	86
323 Easy St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+3%)	2mo	$310,000	$174	82
1000 E Central Ave #2	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-12%)	7mo	$75,000	$50	73
1000 E Central Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-13%)	5mo	$125,000	$83	71
1316 Sunny Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (-6%)	4mo	$283,000	$174	67
1200 E Central Ave #101	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-12%)	7mo	$95,000	$63	67
1200 E Central Ave Unit Sp 38	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-12%)	9mo	$125,000	$83	65
189 Raintree Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+3%)	1mo	$320,000	$180	62
1200 E Central Ave Unit 68A	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-12%)	7mo	$80,000	$53	62
279 Sunnyside Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+3%)	10mo	$279,000	$157	58
550 S State St #115	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-6%)	2mo	$100,000	$62	56
550 S State St #139	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (-11%)	6mo	$125,800	$82	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $16,655
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $63,112
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97479

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $865/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $130,000 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-04-20
    listed $130,000 Active 1015-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

    This is an especially nice, clean home that offers a spacious, well-thought-out layout that's perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a true highlight packed with generous cupboard storage (including convenient pull-out shelves) and featuring an island that's great for meal prep and extra counter space. Vaulted ceilings make the main living areas feel even more open and inviting. The large master suite is complete with a walk-in shower and a handicap accessible soaking tub. The home is designed with accessibility in mind including a wheelchair ramp, wheelchair elevator, and wide open spaces and doorways that are easy to navigate. The second bathroom also features a walk-in shower for added comfort and convenience. There is also a dedicated laundry room with an additional water heater, plenty of space for guests, and ample off-street parking with a convenient 2 car carport. Don't miss out on this exceptional home on a desirable lot in a nice park. Schedule your private tour today!

11. 2016-06-23
    soldstatus $59,000 Sold 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Spacious 2007 Karsten Home in 55+ Silver Glen Moble Home Park. 1728 sq ft of living space. 3BR, 2BA w/den, kitchen island, vaulted ceilings in great room. GE washer, dryer, fridge & range included. Move in ready. Park has clubhouse with swimming pool, billiards, library and other activity rooms to enjoy. Call to schedule your private viewing today!

12. 2016-05-07
    status Pending 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Spacious 2007 Karsten Home in 55+ Silver Glen Moble Home Park. 1728 sq ft of living space. 3BR, 2BA w/den, kitchen island, vaulted ceilings in great room. GE washer, dryer, fridge & range included. Move in ready. Park has clubhouse with swimming pool, billiards, library and other activity rooms to enjoy. Call to schedule your private viewing today!

13. 2016-05-03
    listed $59,000 Active 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Spacious 2007 Karsten Home in 55+ Silver Glen Moble Home Park. 1728 sq ft of living space. 3BR, 2BA w/den, kitchen island, vaulted ceilings in great room. GE washer, dryer, fridge & range included. Move in ready. Park has clubhouse with swimming pool, billiards, library and other activity rooms to enjoy. Call to schedule your private viewing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $865 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 45.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$865
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $5,335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $5,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sutherlin SD 130
• NCES district ID: 4111940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,425
• Composite: 24.79/100
• National rank: #7598
• State rank: #47 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sutherlin

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sutherlin, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,479

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.34%
• Current HPI: 328.8614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+120.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $130,000 RMLS
• 2016-06-23 Sold (MLS) $59,000 RMLS
• 2016-05-07 Pending — RMLS
• 2016-05-03 Listed $59,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $865 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.