8325 W Bluebird Dr · Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$259,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,328 sqft · Other public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2012 0.62 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located just a short drive to the highway and only minutes from shopping, fuel, and local restaurants, this ranch-style home offers practical living in a highly accessible setting. Inside, you'll find brand-new durable LVP flooring throughout, with tile in the private owner's bath. Fresh interior paint gives the entire home a crisp, move-in-ready feel. The main living area is Inside, you'll find brand-new durable LVP flooring throughout, with tile in the private owner's bath. Fresh interior paint gives the entire home a crisp, move-in-ready feel. The main living area is. .. .. efficiently heated by a Toyo stove, complemented by a heat recovery ventilation system for improved ai

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• Built 2012
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-900/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Lakes Elementary (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 297 students, 50% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $216,248 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-46,495
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-45,011
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$312 /mo · $3,745/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $246,654

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1622 S Blue Duck Cir Unit 2 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,900	$1.68	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   listed $259,900 Active
3. 2014-08-29
   soldstatus
4. 2014-07-25
   listed $164,900
5. 2014-03-14
   listed $158,000
6. 2013-10-15
   soldstatus
7. 2011-02-09
   soldstatus
8. 2006-06-12
   listed $11,000
9. 2004-08-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,745 · $312/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,745 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,745
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$5,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,288
• After-tax cash flow: $388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Meadow Lakes

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #24629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 23,424
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2262.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $259,900 AKMLS
• 2014-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-25 Listed $164,900 AKMLS
• 2014-03-14 Listed $158,000 AKMLS
• 2013-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-12 Listed $11,000 AKMLS
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,745 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.