4126 Nancy St · Pearl, MS 39208

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1963 0.25 ac lot $186/sqft · 48% above area Est $146k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You're not dreaming--this updated four-bedroom home is truly available at this price! From the moment you walk in, you'll love the roomy layout, featuring four spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space, a beautifully updated kitchen with granite countertops, and a large, inviting living area. The oversized primary bath offers a little extra comfort, and out back, a generous deck overlooks a huge yard--perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or hosting friends and family.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.5% in Pearl — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,762 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,287
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: 12.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4131 Nancy St	0.03mi	3/1.0	892 (+0%)	2mo	$125,000	$140	92
4159 Dearing St	0.11mi	3/1.0	878 (-1%)	2mo	$125,000	$142	88
4141 Shelton St	0.13mi	3/1.0	899 (+1%)	9mo	$146,000	$162	80
4137 Shelton St	0.17mi	3/1.0	910 (+2%)	12mo	$94,900	$104	74
4171 Nancy St	0.13mi	3/1.0	913 (+3%)	18mo	$135,000	$148	70
209 Areo Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	988 (+11%)	3mo	$154,900	$157	63
4240 Herrington Blvd	0.28mi	3/1.0	950 (+7%)	14mo	$114,900	$121	60
4129 Shelton St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+13%)	13mo	$159,999	$160	55
173 Areo Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	966 (+9%)	22mo	$158,700	$164	52
4325 Autry St	0.31mi	3/1.0	982 (+11%)	16mo	$134,900	$137	50
4235 Herrington Blvd	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,015 (+14%)	16mo	$139,900	$138	47
241 Baugh St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,021 (+15%)	16mo	$165,000	$162	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,242
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $26,290
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,152/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $208	+0% $162	+5% $115	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $42	-5% $102	+0% $162	+5% $221	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $245	-0.5pp $203	base $162	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3569 Old Brandon Rd Pearl, MS	2.0	1.0	800	$1,135	$1.42	44d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   You're not dreaming--this updated four-bedroom home is truly available at this price! From the moment you walk in, you'll love the roomy layout, featuring four spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space, a beautifully updated kitchen with granite countertops, and a large, inviting living area. The oversized primary bath offers a little extra comfort, and out back, a generous deck overlooks a huge yard--perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or hosting friends and family.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $164,900 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   You're not dreaming--this updated four-bedroom home is truly available at this price! From the moment you walk in, you'll love the roomy layout, featuring four spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space, a beautifully updated kitchen with granite countertops, and a large, inviting living area. The oversized primary bath offers a little extra comfort, and out back, a generous deck overlooks a huge yard--perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or hosting friends and family.

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $169,900 Active 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   You're not dreaming--this updated four-bedroom home is truly available at this price! From the moment you walk in, you'll love the roomy layout, featuring four spacious bedrooms with plenty of closet space, a beautifully updated kitchen with granite countertops, and a large, inviting living area. The oversized primary bath offers a little extra comfort, and out back, a generous deck overlooks a huge yard--perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or hosting friends and family.

4. 2021-10-02
   historical
5. 2021-06-07
   soldstatus
6. 2021-06-01
   soldstatus
7. 2021-05-02
   listed $129,900
8. 2013-08-20
   soldstatus
9. 2013-07-05
   listed $89,900
10. 2013-03-15
    soldstatus
11. 2013-01-12
    listed $14,000
12. 2013-01-12
    listed $14,000
13. 2002-12-05
    soldstatus
14. 2002-06-14
    listed $32,550

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,152 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$13/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,152
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$195
• After-tax cash flow: $2,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2803520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,525
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #4699
• State rank: #32 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+406.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $164,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-14 Listed $169,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-01 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-05-02 Listed $129,900 MLSU
• 2013-08-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-07-05 Listed $89,900 MLSU
• 2013-03-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-01-12 Listed $14,000 MLSU
• 2013-01-12 Listed $14,000 MLSU
• 2002-12-05 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2002-06-14 Listed $32,550 MLSU

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,152 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.