218 Black Mountain Rd W · Dunlap, TN 37327

$224,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 232 Days on market

Built 2015 1.00 ac lot $109/sqft · 25% below area Est $300k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A must-see, beautifully maintained open floor plan 4-bedroom home. Situated on 1 acre of mostly fenced land, this property boasts a serene back deck and ample cleared space. An added bonus is the conveyance of a well-kept outdoor building. This home is on Cagle Mountain which makes the journey to Fall Creek Falls State Park, and Savage Gulf State Park a close drive for hiking, swimming, golfing or just enjoying outdoor beauty. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Serene back deck
• 1 acre lot
• Built 2015

Tags

• 1 ACRE OF MOSTLY FENCED LAND
• SERENE BACK DECK
• WELL-KEPT OUTDOOR BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.4% in Dunlap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#264 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sequatchie County (rural): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #95 of 139 in TN (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 317 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Sequatchie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sequatchie County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $224k implies a 1500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,822 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,384
• List price: $224,000
• Delta: -25.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $110,088
• Equity at exit: $201,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $333,270
• Equity at exit: $435,183

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37327

• Home prices YoY: 19.0%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $191,254

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-122	+0% $-185	+5% $-249	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-243	+0% $-185	+5% $-127	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-128	base $-185	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 232 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,000 Active 227 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 226 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,000 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,000 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,000 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,000 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,000 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,000 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $224,000 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    A must-see, beautifully maintained open floor plan 4-bedroom home. Situated on 1 acre of mostly fenced land, this property boasts a serene back deck and ample cleared space. An added bonus is the conveyance of a well-kept outdoor building. This home is on Cagle Mountain which makes the journey to Fall Creek Falls State Park, and Savage Gulf State Park a close drive for hiking, swimming, golfing or just enjoying outdoor beauty. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-02-01
    price $229,000 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    A must-see, beautifully maintained open floor plan 4-bedroom home. Situated on 1 acre of mostly fenced land, this property boasts a serene back deck and ample cleared space. An added bonus is the conveyance of a well-kept outdoor building. This home is on Cagle Mountain which makes the journey to Fall Creek Falls State Park, and Savage Gulf State Park a close drive for hiking, swimming, golfing or just enjoying outdoor beauty. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2025-12-13
    price $234,900 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    A must-see, beautifully maintained open floor plan 4-bedroom home. Situated on 1 acre of mostly fenced land, this property boasts a serene back deck and ample cleared space. An added bonus is the conveyance of a well-kept outdoor building. This home is on Cagle Mountain which makes the journey to Fall Creek Falls State Park, and Savage Gulf State Park a close drive for hiking, swimming, golfing or just enjoying outdoor beauty. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2025-10-28
    listed $249,900 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    A must-see, beautifully maintained open floor plan 4-bedroom home. Situated on 1 acre of mostly fenced land, this property boasts a serene back deck and ample cleared space. An added bonus is the conveyance of a well-kept outdoor building. This home is on Cagle Mountain which makes the journey to Fall Creek Falls State Park, and Savage Gulf State Park a close drive for hiking, swimming, golfing or just enjoying outdoor beauty. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2025-07-10
    price $269,000
22. 2025-03-24
    price $274,900
23. 2015-05-19
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,590 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 71.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$6,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $-710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sequatchie County
• NCES district ID: 4703750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,931
• Composite: 20.37/100
• National rank: #8598
• State rank: #95 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dunlap

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #264
• US rank: #18526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,424

Population outlook (Sequatchie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,998 people
• By 2030: 16,451 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 17,030 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 17,192 · +7.5%
• By 2075: 17,053 · +6.6%
• By 2100: 15,876 · -0.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sequatchie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.4% · R 82.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: -34.8pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+34.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.28%
• Current HPI: 339.856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+1500.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $224,000 GCAR
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $229,000 GCAR
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $234,900 GCAR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $249,900 GCAR
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $269,000 GCAR
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $274,900 GCAR
• 2015-05-19 Sold (MLS) $14,000 GCAR

Property tax history

+30.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.