1616 Shady Grove Rd · Jonesboro, AR 72401

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful West Jonesboro home with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and nice upgrades! This all brick home is on a slab foundation with central heat and air and a nice carport. Why rent when you can enjoy your own home, in a great neighborhood with a spacious shady backyard!!

Key facts

• Slab foundation
• Central heat and air
• Carport

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SLAB FOUNDATION
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• CARPORT
• SPACIOUS SHADY BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cash financing available

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Natural gas
• Home design: Brick exterior
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Other foundation (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved road access; Level lot; Inside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($915/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Jonesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jonesboro School District (urban): math 28% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #169 of 238 in AR (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kindergarten Center (503 students, 100% FRL); Annie Camp Jr. High School (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #150 of 201 statewide, top 76%, 784 students, 100% FRL); The Academies At Jonesboro High School (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #225 of 292 statewide, top 78%, 1,386 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 67% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $160k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,161 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.04%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,710
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1804 Brookhaven Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+0%)	4mo	$110,000	$81	87
1824 W College	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,270 (-6%)	1mo	$128,000	$101	76
2000 Broadmoor Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+9%)	7mo	$120,000	$81	74
2010 Emerald Cv	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	4mo	$150,000	$107	67
1004 Rosemond Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+6%)	3mo	$185,000	$129	64
2011 Timberridge Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+3%)	2mo	$172,000	$123	62
2014 Cenwood Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,374 (+2%)	6mo	$175,400	$128	61
1402 Smoot Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-6%)	4mo	$158,000	$124	56
901 Valley Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,452 (+7%)	1mo	$167,000	$115	53
1711 Wembleton Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	3mo	$171,150	$141	52
2305 Anne	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+11%)	5mo	$145,000	$96	46
1700 Heather Ridge Dr	0.68mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,198 (-12%)	1mo	$125,000	$104	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,251
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,035
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72401

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $122	+0% $76	+5% $31	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $24	+0% $76	+5% $129	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $117	base $76	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1751 W Nettleton Ave Jonesboro, AR	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	0.35mi
3205 Turtle Creek Rd Jonesboro, AR	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,400	$1.16	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-10
   historical $1,200
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $159,900 New Listing

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Beautiful West Jonesboro home with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and nice upgrades! This all brick home is on a slab foundation with central heat and air and a nice carport. Why rent when you can enjoy your own home, in a great neighborhood with a spacious shady backyard!!

3. 2026-05-08
   listed $159,900 Active 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Beautiful West Jonesboro home with 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and nice upgrades! This all brick home is on a slab foundation with central heat and air and a nice carport. Why rent when you can enjoy your own home, in a great neighborhood with a spacious shady backyard!!

4. 2026-04-15
   price $1,200
5. 2026-03-27
   listed $1,300
6. 2026-03-27
   historical $1,300
7. 2026-03-13
   listed $1,300
8. 2023-06-05
   historical
9. 2001-05-08
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,278
• − Management: −$1,278
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$440
• After-tax cash flow: $1,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jonesboro School District
• NCES district ID: 0508280
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,347
• Composite: 23.06/100
• National rank: #7967
• State rank: #169 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jonesboro

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #12692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jonesboro, AR
• County: Craighead County · 97,185 people
• City population: 91,245
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• Population (ZIP): 42,602
• Household income: $45,329
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2606.0

Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.25%
• Current HPI: 208.2079
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-97.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Rental Removed $1,200 HEROPM
• 2026-05-08 Listed $159,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $159,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $1,200 HEROPM
• 2026-03-27 Listed for Rent $1,300 HEROPM
• 2026-03-27 Rental Removed $1,300 HEROPM
• 2026-03-13 Listed for Rent $1,300 HEROPM
• 2023-06-05 Rental Removed — HEROPM
• 2001-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.