8811 Burford Ln · Houston, TX 77088

$190,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1975 6,137 sqft lot $134/sqft · 9% below area Est $209k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bd. 1 1/2 bath with fenced back yard. Home is being cleaned. Ref., stove and dishwasher along with Micro Wave furnished. You have a nice breakfast bar next to the dining/ breakfast room opens to the living area. Great for entertaining. Fenced back yard. Close to I-45 off 249. There is remaining furniture in the home and can be given away if rented or sold or you can keep it.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Living area
• Dining room

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DINING ROOM
• LIVING AREA
• CLOSE TO I-45

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11415% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,977
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -9.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1938 Barnsley Ln	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,325 (-6%)	0mo	$140,000	$106	72
2422 Fallen Pine Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-1%)	0mo	$199,999	$143	68
2418 Fallen Pine Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-1%)	2mo	$199,999	$143	68
9527 Beckley St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,420 (+0%)	3mo	$256,990	$181	67
9529 Beckley St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,420 (+0%)	3mo	$264,990	$187	67
1707 Winter Bay Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+10%)	4mo	$160,000	$103	54
1330 Mosher Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+7%)	2mo	$200,000	$132	52
1207 Dewalt St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,596 (+13%)	1mo	$320,000	$201	48
1211 Dewalt St	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,596 (+13%)	1mo	$320,000	$201	48
1203 Dewalt St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,596 (+13%)	3mo	$330,000	$207	46
1205 Dewalt St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,596 (+13%)	4mo	$330,000	$207	46
8914 Ivy Spring Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+13%)	1mo	$325,000	$204	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,305
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-29,386
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,274/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $228	+0% $174	+5% $120	+10% $66
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $98	+0% $174	+5% $250	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $270	-0.5pp $222	base $174	+0.5pp $125	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1450 Dewalt St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1371	$2,500	$1.82	44d	1	0.48mi
1438 Peach Spring Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	1288	$1,599	$1.24	3d	1	0.60mi
2320 Wavell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,900	$1.65	44d	1	0.78mi
2320 Wavell St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,683	$1.46	44d	1	0.79mi
9002 Bunny Run Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,950	$1.26	25d	1	1.02mi
2407 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1195	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	1.06mi
2722 Stallings Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	0d	1	1.09mi
929 Marjorie St Unit 1060806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$3,091	$2.87	8d	1	1.15mi
1330 Blue Bell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1418	$1,790	$1.26	0d	7	1.18mi
8406 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,695	$1.06	44d	1	1.18mi
8404 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	44d	1	1.19mi
1010 Junell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	25d	1	1.20mi
8312 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	1.20mi
8312 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	1.20mi
8310 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	1.21mi
2850 W Gulf Bank Rd Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$1,413	$1.34	0d	109	1.21mi
8306 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	1.22mi
8304 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	1.22mi
8122 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.24mi
8120 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.24mi
8120 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	1.24mi
8118 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.24mi
8112 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	0d	1	1.26mi
8110 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.26mi
8108 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.27mi
3018 Stallings Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$1,550	$1.03	44d	1	1.30mi
9750 Deer Trail Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.37mi
9750 Deer Trail Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,200	$2.10	44d	1	1.37mi
7514 Sandle St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,999	$1.31	44d	1	1.38mi
8101 Venus St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,595	$1.16	25d	1	1.39mi
8101 Venus St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,699	$1.24	25d	1	1.39mi
7903 Moon Beam St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1217	$1,700	$1.40	18d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-01-07
    listed $1,650
17. 2025-12-30
    price $190,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Nice 3 bd. 1 1/2 bath with fenced back yard. Home is being cleaned. Ref., stove and dishwasher along with Micro Wave furnished. You have a nice breakfast bar next to the dining/ breakfast room opens to the living area. Great for entertaining. Fenced back yard. Close to I-45 off 249. There is remaining furniture in the home and can be given away if rented or sold or you can keep it.

18. 2025-12-30
    listed $190 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Nice 3 bd. 1 1/2 bath with fenced back yard. Home is being cleaned. Ref., stove and dishwasher along with Micro Wave furnished. You have a nice breakfast bar next to the dining/ breakfast room opens to the living area. Great for entertaining. Fenced back yard. Close to I-45 off 249. There is remaining furniture in the home and can be given away if rented or sold or you can keep it.

19. 2025-10-09
    historical $1,700
20. 2025-10-09
    price $1,700
21. 2025-08-08
    listed $1,600
22. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,274 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,274
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$233
• After-tax cash flow: $2,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $190 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,274 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.