151 Payne St · Grannis, AR 71944

$139,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1970 0.39 ac lot $99/sqft · 17% below area Est $168k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming property located inside the city limits of Grannis, sitting on a . 39-acre lot with plenty of potential! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home also features an additional room that could easily be converted into a 4th bedroom, office, or flex space to fit your needs. The home has already undergone major updates, including all new wiring, walls, ceilings, flooring, windows, and doors—giving you a solid foundation to finish it exactly how you want. Enjoy a beautiful, professionally done walk-in shower and the warmth of varnished tongue-and-groove pine boards that run throughout the home, adding character and charm. The kitchen is ready for your finishing touches, making this a great oppo

Key facts

• Plenty of yard space
• Movable carport
• 39 acre lot

Tags

• 39 ACRE LOT
• MOVABLE CARPORT
• PLENTY OF YARD SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing available: Conventional loan or cash

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service (Municipal/Entergy); Natural gas
• Home design: Brick and wood exterior
• Construction: Slab foundation; 3-tab shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved road access; Level lot; Inside city limits

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units; Floor/wall furnace
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#343 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Cossatot River School District (rural): math 42% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #68 of 238 in AR (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 89% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $139k implies a 632% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,617 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,227
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -17.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $24,707
• Equity at exit: $62,500

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $76,625
• Equity at exit: $96,321

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71944

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $384/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,037

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Price Change 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Price Change 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Price Change 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $145,000 New Listing 1062-char remark
18. 1990-07-01
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $384 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$505/yr (+$42/mo · 131.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$384
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $1,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cossatot River School District
• NCES district ID: 0500405
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,594
• Composite: 33.36/100
• National rank: #5483
• State rank: #68 of 238 in AR

Livability — Grannis

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #21744

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grannis, AR
• City population: 924
• Population (ZIP): 924

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,065 people
• By 2030: 18,369 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 17,156 · -10.0%
• By 2050: 16,177 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 14,642 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 13,020 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.5) · D 13.8% · R 84.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.7pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -70.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.5 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+66.4 2012: R+56.9 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+631.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $139,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $145,000 CARMLS
• 1990-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+43.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $384 · +5122.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.