15820 S Harlan Rd #5 · Lathrop, CA 95330

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $132/sqft · 8% below area Est $180k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Camino Mobile Home! ALL AGES PARK. Are you a commuter? This home is perfect for you. This charming residence offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an open-concept living. Recently updated, it's ready for a loving family to call it home. Enjoy the family-friendly atmosphere with an all- park and a swimming pool!!!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1973
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.1% in Lathrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#842 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, schools F, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.69%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -8.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15820 S Harlan Rd #13	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-5%)	14mo	$112,500	$94	76
15820 S Harlan Rd #158	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+9%)	7mo	$192,000	$140	76
15820 S Harlan Rd #16	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	13mo	$169,000	$147	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $59,602
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $159,834
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95330

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $1,374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Stanford Xg Lathrop, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1472	$3,326	$2.26	2d	47	0.36mi
16012 Julie Ln Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,800	$2.45	23d	1	0.38mi
631 Estancia St Lathrop, CA	4.0	3.0	1870	$3,199	$1.71	2d	1	0.67mi
1241 Shawn Ct Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,395	$1.77	23d	1	0.88mi
240 Towne Centre Dr Unit A301 Lathrop, CA	2.0	2.0	1046	$2,461	$2.35	43d	1	1.02mi
994 Osprey Dr Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,800	$1.85	2d	1	1.04mi
14061 Jasper St Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,700	$2.00	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 39 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,055
• − Management: −$3,055
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $14,737
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,537
• After-tax cash flow: $12,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with good condition and recent updates. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior comfort.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace window treatments — New curtains or blinds can improve light and privacy
• Both Update kitchen backsplash — Fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New tile or wood-look flooring can improve aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New curtains or blinds can improve light and privacy ↑
• Both Update kitchen backsplash — Fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New tile or wood-look flooring can improve aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lathrop

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #23278

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lathrop, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 35,395
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,395
• Household income: $125,421
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 309.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 32% Two or more races 22% White 19% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 12% Tagalog/Filipino 7%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.75%
• Current HPI: 306.2299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B