518 Gillman Ave · Mercedes, TX 78570

$34,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1975 4,443 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Abandoned home sitting on half lot that needs lots of repairs or to be demolished. Home is not livable and does not pass city inspections on current state. Great location within a block from the Expressway.

Key facts

• 4,443 sq ft lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 21 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $520 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.0% vs local median 3.3% in Mercedes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mercedes ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #811 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Taylor El (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 410 students, 95% FRL); Mercedes H S (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,591 of 1,632 statewide, top 98%, 974 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: 392 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($235 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,490 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.90%
• DSCR: 4.29
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,264
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
544 S Washington Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,003 (+4%)	8mo	$184,000	$183	49
401 S Colorado Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	960 (-1%)	21mo	$139,900	$146	47
546 S Georgia Ave	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,000 (+3%)	13mo	$100,000	$100	43
163 N Colorado Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,075 (+11%)	23mo	$159,000	$148	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $40,127
• Equity at exit: $18,295

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.80×
• Total profit: $93,328
• Equity at exit: $30,799

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,270/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $462

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $529	+0% $520	+5% $510	+10% $501
Rent	-10% $431	-5% $476	+0% $520	+5% $564	+10% $608
Rate	-1.0pp $537	-0.5pp $528	base $520	+0.5pp $511	+1.0pp $502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1202 North St Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$885	$1.02	44d	1	0.46mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit A Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.61mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit C Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,275	$1.25	44d	1	0.61mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,325	$1.30	44d	1	0.61mi
907 E Starr Rd Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,050	$0.97	44d	1	0.97mi
906 E Starr Rd Unit B Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.98mi
1003 E Starr Rd Unit C Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$995	$1.05	44d	1	1.01mi
1011 E Starr Rd Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,095	$1.02	44d	1	1.04mi
1204 N Mile 1 E Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$885	$1.02	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   soldstatus
2. 2025-02-20
   status Pending
3. 2025-01-30
   listed $34,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$1,270
• − Insurance: −$968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,075
• − Management: −$1,075
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $6,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $4,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercedes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830250
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,606
• Composite: 12.84/100
• National rank: #9596
• State rank: #811 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercedes, TX
• City population: 33,596
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-20 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $34,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,270 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.