7615 198th St E · Frederickson, WA 98387

$399,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,642 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2004 6,959 sqft lot Est $637k · 37% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath, 2,642 sq ft home in the highly desirable Spanaway community. This meticulously maintained property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and style. Step into a spacious open-concept layout featuring high ceilings, abundant natural light, and ample storage. Enjoy newly installed flooring in the living room, a freshly painted interior, and a custom-built office for added versatility. The expansive upstairs bonus room has been enclosed to create a true second living space—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The gourmet kitchen features granite countertops, upgraded appliances, and an eat-in area that flows into one of

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Custom-built office
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NEWLY INSTALLED FLOORING
• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR
• CUSTOM-BUILT OFFICE
• ENCLOSED UPSTAIRS BONUS ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Frederickson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#197 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elk Plain School of Choice (570 students, 39% FRL); Liberty Middle School (936 students, 55% FRL); Graham Kapowsin High School (2,011 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $323,058 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.55%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $636,722
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7713 197th Street Ct E	0.06mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,440 (-8%)	1mo	$557,000	$228	77
7727 198th St E	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,374 (-10%)	14mo	$555,000	$234	62
8303 192nd St E	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,596 (-2%)	12mo	$830,000	$320	56
19203 76th Ave E	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,302 (-13%)	5mo	$581,850	$253	53
7316 Eustis Hunt Rd	0.53mi	3/3.0	2,275 (-14%)	2mo	$585,000	$257	51
20303 80th Ave E	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,357 (-11%)	11mo	$560,000	$238	50
7228 200th Street Ct E	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,282 (-14%)	8mo	$590,000	$259	49
20006 87th Ave E	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,430 (-8%)	13mo	$573,000	$236	41
8215 207th St E	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,452 (-7%)	14mo	$590,000	$241	41
19117 87th Avenue Ct E	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,366 (-10%)	4mo	$569,950	$241	40
8203 207th St E	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,276 (-14%)	13mo	$569,999	$250	34
8416 205th Street Ct E	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,870 (+9%)	13mo	$550,000	$192	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-75,805
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-68,081
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98387

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,715/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,532

Max offer price $357,881

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-125	+0% $-238	+5% $-351	+10% $-464
Rent	-10% $-493	-5% $-365	+0% $-238	+5% $-110	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-136	base $-238	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19605 84th Ave E Spanaway, WA	3.0	2.5	1916	$3,050	$1.59	26d	1	0.48mi
20519 80th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	2.5	2031	$2,925	$1.44	6d	1	0.53mi
20624 74th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	2.5	2197	$1,400	$0.64	0d	1	0.64mi
7343 177th St E Puyallup, WA	3.0	3.0	1962	$2,795	$1.42	23d	1	1.30mi
18402 96th Ave E South Hill, WA	4.0	2.5	2300	$1,700	$0.74	13d	1	1.44mi
18402 96th Ave E South Hill, WA	4.0	2.5	2307	$1,400	$0.61	14d	1	1.44mi
18317 96th Ave E Puyallup, WA	4.0	2.5	2150	$5,500	$2.56	45d	1	1.47mi
18511 97th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	2104	$2,895	$1.38	19d	1	1.47mi
9110 178th Street Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	3.0	2321	$3,195	$1.38	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-02-25
   price $399,900
2. 2026-02-08
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-05
   listed $499,900 Active
4. 2023-06-26
   soldstatus $521,100 Closed
5. 2023-05-25
   status Pending
6. 2023-05-22
   listed $510,000 Active
7. 2005-09-08
   soldstatus $273,435
8. 2005-01-31
   listed $273,435

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,715 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,715 · $476/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,715
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,101
• − Management: −$3,101
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$9,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,348
• After-tax cash flow: $-506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Frederickson

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #5426

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frederickson, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,195
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,774
• Household income: $106,872
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 10% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.94%
• Current HPI: 308.0462
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+46.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $399,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $499,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-26 Sold (MLS) $521,100 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-25 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-22 Listed $510,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-08 Sold (MLS) $273,435 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-31 Listed $273,435 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,715 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.