23 Tome Vista Dr · El Cerro Mission, NM 87031

$255,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Other · 73 Days on market

Built 2009 6,534 sqft lot $235/sqft · 8% below area Est $276k · 8% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this beautifully maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom turn key home in Los Lunas. Designed with an open floorplan, the space feels bright, airy, and welcoming from the moment you walk in. This move in ready home offers comfort, convenience, and easy living making it perfect for any stage of life. Just bring your furniture and start enjoying your new home.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#330 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,359 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,929
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -7.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,913
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $136
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,041/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,097

Max offer price $230,808

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Tome Vista Dr Los Lunas, NM	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,800	$1.44	44d	1	0.10mi
14 Calle Guaymas Los Lunas, NM	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,975	$1.48	24d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2025-12-18
    listed $265,000 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Step into this beautifully maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom turn key home in Los Lunas. Designed with an open floorplan, the space feels bright, airy, and welcoming from the moment you walk in. This move in ready home offers comfort, convenience, and easy living making it perfect for any stage of life. Just bring your furniture and start enjoying your new home.

16. 2025-03-16
    historical $1,600
17. 2025-03-05
    listed $1,600
18. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus
19. 2023-05-29
    status Pending
20. 2023-05-26
    listed $205,000 Active
21. 2020-08-26
    soldstatus
22. 2020-07-11
    status Pending
23. 2020-07-09
    listed $126,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,041
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$6,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,475
• After-tax cash flow: $-169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — El Cerro Mission

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #26434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cerro Mission, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+108.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Listed $265,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-03-16 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-05 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-29 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2023-05-26 Listed $205,000 Southwest MLS
• 2020-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-11 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2020-07-09 Listed $126,900 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,041 · +22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.