Cascade Plan · Texas City, TX 77590

$313,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,538 sqft · SingleFamily · 404 Days on market

↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 404 days

🏗️ New construction. The $313,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $285,038.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $314k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 292 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,531/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 1821% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 404 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $276,311 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 404 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.20%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,038
• List price: $313,990
• Delta: 10.16%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2507 N 18th St N	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,485 (-2%)	0mo	$344,000	$138	69
3213 21st Street North	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,294 (-10%)	14mo	$335,628	$146	64
1706 23rd Ave N	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+1%)	8mo	$359,000	$140	60
4102 18th St N	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,391 (-6%)	4mo	$465,000	$194	58
4210 Mayflower Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,671 (+5%)	10mo	$406,000	$152	56
1913 28th Ave N	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,802 (+10%)	13mo	$289,000	$103	54
1718 23rd Ave N	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,262 (-11%)	3mo	$292,000	$129	51
1413 28th Ave N	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+2%)	13mo	$239,000	$92	46
2518 Quaker Dr W	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,374 (-6%)	11mo	$489,000	$206	44
3611 18th St N	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,916 (+15%)	9mo	$549,000	$188	42
2402 21st Ave N	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,170 (-14%)	6mo	$150,000	$69	39
2113 21st Ave N	0.63mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,190 (-14%)	5mo	$299,000	$137	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $65,282
• Equity at exit: $42,500

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $227,009
• Equity at exit: $24,645

Cash invested: $79,811 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77590

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,276/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$952
• Net cashflow: $1,610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $285,038

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,259
• Closing costs: $8,551
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2411 29th Ave N Unit 1056454P Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	2088	$6,978	$3.34	1d	1	0.22mi
1139 Mainland Dr Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	2500	$2,100	$0.84	1d	1	0.97mi
625 26th Ave N Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1782	$1,945	$1.09	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $313,990 Active 404 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $313,990 Active 403 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $313,990 Active 402 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $313,990 Active 401 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $313,990 Active 399 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $313,990 Active 395 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $313,990 Active 394 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $313,990 Active 393 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $313,990 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $313,990 Active 389 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $313,990 Active 388 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $313,990 Active 387 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,990 Active 387 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,990 Active 386 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $308,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

16. 2026-05-02
    price $304,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

17. 2026-03-02
    price $300,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

18. 2026-02-21
    price $330,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

19. 2026-02-12
    price $329,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

20. 2026-01-17
    price $328,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

21. 2025-12-10
    price $341,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

22. 2025-12-03
    status Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

23. 2025-12-02
    historical 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

24. 2025-12-02
    status Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

25. 2025-12-02
    historical 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

26. 2025-10-02
    price $353,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

27. 2025-08-16
    status Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

28. 2025-08-16
    price $350,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

29. 2025-06-21
    historical 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

30. 2025-04-02
    price $370,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

31. 2025-03-13
    listed $365,990 Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The two-story Cascade home opens to a foyer with a tray ceiling and a conveniently located study. The kitchen features a large island and walk-in pantry, flowing into the breakfast area with a window seat and access to the covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The private primary suite includes a sloped ceiling and a bath with your choice of soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench, located near the laundry, provides access to the 2-car garage. Upstairs, a loft accompanies the secondary bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,967
• − Property taxes: −$4,276
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,350
• − Management: −$4,350
• − Depreciation: −$8,292
• Taxable income: $15,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,772
• After-tax cash flow: $15,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,642
• Household income: $65,801
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1821.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 20% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.35%
• Current HPI: 244.5809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $308,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $300,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $330,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $328,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $341,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $353,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $370,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-13 Listed $365,990 Zillow