140 Cathy Rd NE · Gumbranch, GA 31316

$127,400

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 414 Days on market

Built 1986 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Escape to the tranquility of rural living with this charming single-wide manufactured home, perfectly situated on a sprawling 1-acre lot. This property offers freedom and privacy with no HOA dues and no city taxes, giving you the freedom to truly make it your own. The chain-link fenced backyard ensures a secure space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities, while the home's location provides exceptional convenience to Fort Stewart, making it ideal for military personnel or those who value proximity to the base. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a practical home with space to roam, this property offers the perfect blend of rural charm and modern practicality. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• No hoa
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• CHAIN-LINK FENCED BACKYARD
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 5.6% in Gumbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($881 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $127k implies a 553% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $30,526
• Equity at exit: $44,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $86,585
• Equity at exit: $60,022

Cash invested: $35,672 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$668
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $127,400

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,850
• Closing costs: $3,822
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $127,400 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,400 Active 413 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,400 Active 412 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,400 Active 411 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,400 Active 410 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,400 Active 408 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,400 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,400 Active 405 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,400 Active 404 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $127,400 Active 403 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,400 Active 402 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $127,400 Active 399 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,400 Active 398 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,400 Active 397 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,400 Active 396 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,400 Active 395 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $127,400 Active 394 DOM
18. 2026-02-06
    status Active 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Escape to the tranquility of rural living with this charming single-wide manufactured home, perfectly situated on a sprawling 1-acre lot. This property offers freedom and privacy with no HOA dues and no city taxes, giving you the freedom to truly make it your own. The chain-link fenced backyard ensures a secure space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities, while the home's location provides exceptional convenience to Fort Stewart, making it ideal for military personnel or those who value proximity to the base. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a practical home with space to roam, this property offers the perfect blend of rural charm and modern practicality. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

19. 2025-12-13
    historical 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Escape to the tranquility of rural living with this charming single-wide manufactured home, perfectly situated on a sprawling 1-acre lot. This property offers freedom and privacy with no HOA dues and no city taxes, giving you the freedom to truly make it your own. The chain-link fenced backyard ensures a secure space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities, while the home's location provides exceptional convenience to Fort Stewart, making it ideal for military personnel or those who value proximity to the base. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a practical home with space to roam, this property offers the perfect blend of rural charm and modern practicality. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

20. 2025-12-13
    historical

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Escape to the tranquility of rural living with this charming single-wide manufactured home, perfectly situated on a sprawling 1-acre lot. This property offers freedom and privacy with no HOA dues and no city taxes, giving you the freedom to truly make it your own. The chain-link fenced backyard ensures a secure space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities, while the home's location provides exceptional convenience to Fort Stewart, making it ideal for military personnel or those who value proximity to the base. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a practical home with space to roam, this property offers the perfect blend of rural charm and modern practicality. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

21. 2025-12-12
    historical
22. 2025-06-12
    price $127,400

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Escape to the tranquility of rural living with this charming single-wide manufactured home, perfectly situated on a sprawling 1-acre lot. This property offers freedom and privacy with no HOA dues and no city taxes, giving you the freedom to truly make it your own. The chain-link fenced backyard ensures a secure space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities, while the home's location provides exceptional convenience to Fort Stewart, making it ideal for military personnel or those who value proximity to the base. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a practical home with space to roam, this property offers the perfect blend of rural charm and modern practicality. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

23. 2025-06-12
    price $127,400 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Escape to the tranquility of rural living with this charming single-wide manufactured home, perfectly situated on a sprawling 1-acre lot. This property offers freedom and privacy with no HOA dues and no city taxes, giving you the freedom to truly make it your own. The chain-link fenced backyard ensures a secure space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities, while the home's location provides exceptional convenience to Fort Stewart, making it ideal for military personnel or those who value proximity to the base. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a practical home with space to roam, this property offers the perfect blend of rural charm and modern practicality. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

24. 2025-05-01
    listed $129,900 Active 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Escape to the tranquility of rural living with this charming single-wide manufactured home, perfectly situated on a sprawling 1-acre lot. This property offers freedom and privacy with no HOA dues and no city taxes, giving you the freedom to truly make it your own. The chain-link fenced backyard ensures a secure space for pets, gardening, or outdoor activities, while the home's location provides exceptional convenience to Fort Stewart, making it ideal for military personnel or those who value proximity to the base. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a practical home with space to roam, this property offers the perfect blend of rural charm and modern practicality. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

25. 2025-04-29
    listed $127,400 Active
26. 2025-04-29
    listed $127,400
27. 2025-04-23
    listed $129,900 New
28. 2005-03-01
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$491/yr (+$41/mo · 72.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,136
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$637
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$3,706
• Taxable income: $3,213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$771
• After-tax cash flow: $4,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumbranch

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #18664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+553.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Relisted — HABR
• 2025-12-13 Delisted — HABR
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $127,400 GAMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $127,400 HABR
• 2025-05-01 Listed $129,900 HABR
• 2025-04-29 Listed $127,400 Hive MLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $127,400 Hive MLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $129,900 GAMLS
• 2005-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · -12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.