2123 10th Ave E · Spencer, IA 51301

$48,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1900 0.30 ac lot $46/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Flippers! Take this opportunity to update this 3 bed, 1 bath home on the outskirts of town. Priced to sell. Sold AS-IS. Owner has used as a rental, so buyers should satisfy themselves as to the condition of the home with inspections. Seller financing available.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $813 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 4.6% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#168 in IA, #3,020 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spencer Community School District (town): math 73% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #114 of 289 in IA (top 39%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $48k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $42,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.57%
• DSCR: 4.23
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,619
• List price: $48,000
• Delta: -70.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 Elmwood Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+2%)	9mo	$175,000	$164	68
1609 4th Ave E	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,025 (-2%)	8mo	$166,000	$162	56
1622 1st Ave E	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (+6%)	0mo	$174,900	$158	53
321 E 14th St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,118 (+7%)	1mo	$134,890	$121	51
1320 5th Ave E	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-4%)	13mo	$188,000	$188	44
518 E 13th St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-9%)	7mo	$180,000	$189	43
508 E 12th St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	23mo	$124,000	$123	40
313 E 14th St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+15%)	6mo	$135,000	$113	38
1222 4th Ave E	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+10%)	4mo	$170,000	$149	37
1514 1st Ave E	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	953 (-9%)	20mo	$154,950	$163	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $44,006
• Equity at exit: $7,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $105,045
• Equity at exit: $4,150

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51301

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $409

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $48,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $48,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $48,000 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $48,000 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $48,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-04-01
   price $48,000 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Attention Flippers! Take this opportunity to update this 3 bed, 1 bath home on the outskirts of town. Priced to sell. Sold AS-IS. Owner has used as a rental, so buyers should satisfy themselves as to the condition of the home with inspections. Seller financing available.

7. 2025-12-11
   price $52,000 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Attention Flippers! Take this opportunity to update this 3 bed, 1 bath home on the outskirts of town. Priced to sell. Sold AS-IS. Owner has used as a rental, so buyers should satisfy themselves as to the condition of the home with inspections. Seller financing available.

8. 2025-12-07
   listed $65,000 Active 272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (272 chars)

   Attention Flippers! Take this opportunity to update this 3 bed, 1 bath home on the outskirts of town. Priced to sell. Sold AS-IS. Owner has used as a rental, so buyers should satisfy themselves as to the condition of the home with inspections. Seller financing available.

9. 2012-09-07
   soldstatus $21,000 352-char remark

   Show marketing remark (352 chars)

   Perfect opportunity location. Right on the edge of town, this property has the best of country and in town living. Many updates already completed, this property has a good deal of potential for the right buyer. Basement should be inspected/estimates taken for repair. Property priced to sell and listed AS-IS. Contact listing agent for further details.

10. 2012-06-14
    listed $20,000 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Perfect opportunity location. Right on the edge of town, this property has the best of country and in town living. Many updates already completed, this property has a good deal of potential for the right buyer. Basement should be inspected/estimates taken for repair. Property priced to sell and listed AS-IS. Contact listing agent for further details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$71/yr (+$6/mo · 11.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $9,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,292
• After-tax cash flow: $7,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencer Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1926910
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,474
• Composite: 61.02/100
• National rank: #797
• State rank: #114 of 289 in IA

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #3020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spencer, IA
• City population: 12,402
• Population (ZIP): 12,402

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,277 people
• By 2030: 16,073 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 15,638 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 15,315 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 15,026 · -7.7%
• By 2100: 14,638 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.8% · R 71.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.7 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.43%
• Current HPI: 192.1741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+140.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $48,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $52,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2025-12-07 Listed $65,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2012-09-07 Sold (MLS) $21,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-14 Listed $20,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $612 · -30.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.