13607 Kit Run · Splendora, TX 77372

$241,587

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,556 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $233k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

The Wildflower plan is a 1-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and includes a covered patio, flex space, and kitchen island.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Covered patio
• Kitchen island

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• FLEX SPACE
• KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $241,587

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (spec new construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 13607 Kit Run, Splendora, TX 77372

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — The Wildflower plan; Living area approximately 1,556

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-83/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 548 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $210,458 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13667 Kit Run	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (0%)	2mo	$234,990	$151	88
23512 Skyward Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,665 (+7%)	1mo	$248,990	$150	76
13639 Kit Run	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,745 (+12%)	0mo	$224,990	$129	75
23231 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,572 (+1%)	0mo	$222,990	$142	74
23157 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-1%)	2mo	$234,990	$153	73
13674 Kit Run	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (-14%)	2mo	$204,990	$154	63
22820 American Kestrel Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-13%)	1mo	$193,990	$143	57
22824 American Kestrel Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-13%)	1mo	$194,990	$143	57
22816 American Kestrel Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-13%)	2mo	$194,990	$143	56
22565 Cormorant Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,361 (-12%)	1mo	$205,000	$151	55
22740 American Kestrel Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-13%)	1mo	$190,990	$140	55
23191 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,772 (+14%)	1mo	$264,990	$150	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-39,557
• Equity at exit: $36,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-34,886
• Equity at exit: $20,888

Cash invested: $67,644 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,267
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,624/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $240,583

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $160	-5% $77	+0% $-7	+5% $-90	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-90	+0% $-7	+5% $76	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $55	base $-7	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,397
• Closing costs: $7,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 125-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $241,587 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,533
• − Property taxes: −$3,624
• − Insurance: −$1,208
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − Depreciation: −$7,028
• Taxable loss: −$4,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B