12419 Hopscotch Ave · Ruskin, FL 34219

$347,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Land · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 6,240 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Freeport II is a modern single-story floor plan designed with both style and convenience in mind. Offering 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home provides the perfect balance of space and functionality for families of all sizes. Its open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting space that's ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The primary suite is privately located at the rear of the home and features a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual vanities. Three additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, offering plenty of flexibility for family, guests, or a flex room. The kitchen is a highlight of the home, complete with a large island, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, all overlooking the main living areas for easy entertaining.

Key facts

• 6,240 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment noted; Lease restrictions may apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly HOA approximately $71.67 (Quarterly association fee noted $215); Association approval required; HOA amenities: pool, recreational facilities, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball court, pickleball courts, gated community, community mailbox; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 20); Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion July 24, 2026); East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: D R Horton (model: FREEPORT II)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Pond view; Irrigation system; Trees and landscaping; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Fire alarm; Smoke detectors; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $347k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $288,865 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-71,505
• Equity at exit: $51,739

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-103,644
• Equity at exit: $30,002

Cash invested: $97,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,820
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,251/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,025

Max offer price $328,003

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,750
• Closing costs: $10,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	16d	1	0.18mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	0.39mi
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	14d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $347,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $347,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $349,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $352,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $352,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $352,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $352,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $354,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $357,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    The Freeport II is a modern single-story floor plan designed with both style and convenience in mind. Offering 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home provides the perfect balance of space and functionality for families of all sizes. Its open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting space that's ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The primary suite is privately located at the rear of the home and features a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual vanities. Three additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, offering plenty of flexibility for family, guests, or a flex room. The kitchen is a highlight of the home, complete with a large island, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, all overlooking the main living areas for easy entertaining.

17. 2026-05-20
    price $357,000
18. 2026-04-18
    listed $359,000 Active 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    The Freeport II is a modern single-story floor plan designed with both style and convenience in mind. Offering 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home provides the perfect balance of space and functionality for families of all sizes. Its open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting space that's ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The primary suite is privately located at the rear of the home and features a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual vanities. Three additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, offering plenty of flexibility for family, guests, or a flex room. The kitchen is a highlight of the home, complete with a large island, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, all overlooking the main living areas for easy entertaining.

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $359,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,437
• − Property taxes: −$4,251
• − Insurance: −$1,735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,773
• − Management: −$2,773
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$10,095
• Taxable loss: −$7,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,741
• After-tax cash flow: $450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $357,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $357,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $359,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Listed $359,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+31.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,251 · +31.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.