2257 Harden Chapel Rd · Santa Claus, GA 30436

$175,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1933 1.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step back in time with this charming 1933 shotgun-style home nestled on nearly 1.5 acres in the country, yet just minutes from Lyons, Vidalia, and Reidsville. The inviting front porch is made for rocking chairs and friendly waves to passersby. Inside, a welcoming foyer is flanked by two bedrooms, including the primary suite with a spacious bath. The home flows into a cozy family room with an additional full bath, then on to the dining room and a roomy kitchen full of character-don't miss the unique barn door pot rack that adds a special touch! The original portion also features a mudroom with laundry and utility space. A newer addition expands the home with three more generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. Outside, enjoy a great porch area with a firepit and a covered gazebo-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Plenty of space and charm at an incredible value! (4th guest room not pictured at this time.)

Key facts

• 1.41 acre lot
• Built 1933
• Listed 41 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#356 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $175k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.79%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $112,929
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $318,556
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30436

• Home prices YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,098/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,370

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $175,000 921-char remark

   Show marketing remark (921 chars)

   Step back in time with this charming 1933 shotgun-style home nestled on nearly 1.5 acres in the country, yet just minutes from Lyons, Vidalia, and Reidsville. The inviting front porch is made for rocking chairs and friendly waves to passersby. Inside, a welcoming foyer is flanked by two bedrooms, including the primary suite with a spacious bath. The home flows into a cozy family room with an additional full bath, then on to the dining room and a roomy kitchen full of character-don't miss the unique barn door pot rack that adds a special touch! The original portion also features a mudroom with laundry and utility space. A newer addition expands the home with three more generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. Outside, enjoy a great porch area with a firepit and a covered gazebo-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Plenty of space and charm at an incredible value! (4th guest room not pictured at this time.)

2. 2026-04-28
   price $197,000 921-char remark

   Show marketing remark (921 chars)

   Step back in time with this charming 1933 shotgun-style home nestled on nearly 1.5 acres in the country, yet just minutes from Lyons, Vidalia, and Reidsville. The inviting front porch is made for rocking chairs and friendly waves to passersby. Inside, a welcoming foyer is flanked by two bedrooms, including the primary suite with a spacious bath. The home flows into a cozy family room with an additional full bath, then on to the dining room and a roomy kitchen full of character-don't miss the unique barn door pot rack that adds a special touch! The original portion also features a mudroom with laundry and utility space. A newer addition expands the home with three more generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. Outside, enjoy a great porch area with a firepit and a covered gazebo-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Plenty of space and charm at an incredible value! (4th guest room not pictured at this time.)

3. 2026-04-16
   price $210,000 921-char remark

   Show marketing remark (921 chars)

   Step back in time with this charming 1933 shotgun-style home nestled on nearly 1.5 acres in the country, yet just minutes from Lyons, Vidalia, and Reidsville. The inviting front porch is made for rocking chairs and friendly waves to passersby. Inside, a welcoming foyer is flanked by two bedrooms, including the primary suite with a spacious bath. The home flows into a cozy family room with an additional full bath, then on to the dining room and a roomy kitchen full of character-don't miss the unique barn door pot rack that adds a special touch! The original portion also features a mudroom with laundry and utility space. A newer addition expands the home with three more generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. Outside, enjoy a great porch area with a firepit and a covered gazebo-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Plenty of space and charm at an incredible value! (4th guest room not pictured at this time.)

4. 2026-04-15
   listed $199,000 New 921-char remark

   Show marketing remark (921 chars)

   Step back in time with this charming 1933 shotgun-style home nestled on nearly 1.5 acres in the country, yet just minutes from Lyons, Vidalia, and Reidsville. The inviting front porch is made for rocking chairs and friendly waves to passersby. Inside, a welcoming foyer is flanked by two bedrooms, including the primary suite with a spacious bath. The home flows into a cozy family room with an additional full bath, then on to the dining room and a roomy kitchen full of character-don't miss the unique barn door pot rack that adds a special touch! The original portion also features a mudroom with laundry and utility space. A newer addition expands the home with three more generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. Outside, enjoy a great porch area with a firepit and a covered gazebo-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Plenty of space and charm at an incredible value! (4th guest room not pictured at this time.)

5. 2015-06-16
   soldstatus $75,000
6. 2015-06-15
   soldstatus $75,000 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   (Imported from ABBR ListingId 13105) 2257 Harden Chapel Road: (Lyons, Georgia) This charming farm house has been completely renovated with new vinyl siding on the exterior. Brand new metal roof.The inside has had new light fixtures, new floor covering, el

7. 2014-02-27
   listed $79,900 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   (Imported from ABBR ListingId 13105) 2257 Harden Chapel Road: (Lyons, Georgia) This charming farm house has been completely renovated with new vinyl siding on the exterior. Brand new metal roof.The inside has had new light fixtures, new floor covering, el

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$512/yr (+$43/mo · 46.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,098
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $481
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$115
• After-tax cash flow: $3,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toombs County
• NCES district ID: 1305040
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,288
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6922
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Santa Claus

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #18327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,547

Population outlook (Toombs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,784 people
• By 2030: 26,312 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 25,219 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,733 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,107 · -28.7%
• By 2100: 12,922 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Toombs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 24.5% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.1pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+40.5 2008: R+38.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 257.7921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+119.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $197,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $210,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2015-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-15 Sold (MLS) $75,000 GAMLS
• 2014-02-27 Listed $79,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.