11 Donder Rd · Shelton, WA 98584

$169,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $214k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A peaceful setting with a welcoming, neighborly feel—Christmas Village is a 55+ community that offers an easygoing place to feel right at home. This bright and spacious 1,600+ sq ft home has been designed with comfort in mind. The primary bedroom features its own private bathroom along with two generous walk-in closets, while the large second bedroom also includes two closets for plenty of storage. The layout flows nicely, with a cook-friendly kitchen that includes a rolling island and newer appliances, a sunny breakfast nook, a separate dining room, and a large living room perfect for relaxing or gathering. There’s also a cozy den with a fireplace and a separate utility room th

Key facts

• Sunny breakfast nook
• Separate dining room
• Newer appliances

Tags

• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• COOK-FRIENDLY KITCHEN
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• SUNNY BREAKFAST NOOK
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer brokerage compensation: 3%
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Land lease amount: $725
• HOA & community: Located in Christmas Village manufactured home park; Park approved for sale; Senior community; Park amenities include clubhouse, common area, high-speed internet availability, RV parking; Approximately 104 homes in the park; Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water (City of Shelton); Public sewer (City of Shelton); Electric power (PUD #3); Electric water heater; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Skyline Oak Mannor); One level; Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary; Ceiling fans; Drapes; Skirted with wood
• Construction: Cement and wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Manufactured home (post-06/15/1976)
• Exterior features: Cement/concrete and wood exterior; Paved lot; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Fireplace; Water heater (electric)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Shelton School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #237 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $164,415 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,840
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Blitzen Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (0%)	7mo	$230,000	$142	86
12 Christmas Tree Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-7%)	9mo	$239,000	$158	78
14 Christmas Tree Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-7%)	13mo	$200,000	$132	75
4 Dasher Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-5%)	19mo	$90,000	$59	70
5 Dasher Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	13mo	$50,000	$35	66
9 Donder Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-13%)	17mo	$140,000	$100	64
7 Holly Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	22mo	$115,000	$80	57
7 Noel Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-13%)	20mo	$230,000	$164	51
1310 Northcliff Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-14%)	20mo	$395,000	$282	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,809
• Equity at exit: $25,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,636
• Equity at exit: $14,655

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98584

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,542/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $169,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $273	+0% $214	+5% $155	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $145	+0% $214	+5% $283	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $299	-0.5pp $257	base $214	+0.5pp $170	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,500 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,500 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,500 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,500 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,500 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,500 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $169,500 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2023-06-22
    soldstatus $150,000
17. 2023-06-22
    listed $150,000
18. 2019-11-20
    soldstatus $84,500 Sold
19. 2019-10-24
    status Pending
20. 2019-09-25
    price $89,500
21. 2019-09-03
    price $97,500
22. 2019-08-22
    status Active
23. 2019-08-22
    price $119,500
24. 2019-07-31
    historical Taken Off Market
25. 2019-07-29
    price $129,000
26. 2019-07-16
    listed $139,500 Active
27. 2011-09-14
    historical
28. 2011-09-13
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold
29. 2011-08-18
    status Pending
30. 2011-04-21
    price $79,500
31. 2011-02-25
    status Active
32. 2011-02-22
    status Pending
33. 2011-01-28
    listed $87,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$2,542
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable loss: −$139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $2,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelton School District
• NCES district ID: 5307900
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,467
• Composite: 34.1/100
• National rank: #10288
• State rank: #237 of 291 in WA

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelton, WA
• County: Mason County · 40,606 people
• City population: 40,606
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,606
• Household income: $78,610
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 687.0

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
• Current HPI: 199.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+111.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $185,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-22 Listed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-22 Sold (MLS) $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-20 Sold (MLS) $84,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-25 Price Changed $89,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-03 Price Changed $97,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-22 Price Changed $119,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-31 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-29 Price Changed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-16 Listed $139,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-14 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-13 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-21 Price Changed $79,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-25 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-28 Listed $87,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid