319 1st Ave N · Crooked Lake Park, FL 33859

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured public records · 186 Days on market

Built 1969 8,982 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great price on this neat and clean 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home in Caloosa Lake Village on nice size lot. Make your appointment today to preview this nice home with central H/A, two carports, priced under $50,000. It is being sold in AS IS condition, Due to age of mobile home (even though it has been well maintained and remodeled) and it has to be a cash or conventional financing and No owner financing is available.

Key facts

• New hvac
• New screened porch
• Electric car charger

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW HVAC
• UPDATED ELECTRIC PANEL
• NEW SCREENED PORCH
• ELECTRIC CAR CHARGER
• NEW PLATE GLASS WINDOW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot approximately 0.21 acres (about 0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential double-wide mobile home; One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof with roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Estimated built area corresponds to a double-wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Shed(s) on property; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Includes dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Florida room; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#766 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $150k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.72%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,475
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $49,489
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33859

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $999/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-03-26
    status Active
15. 2026-03-18
    status Pending
16. 2025-12-05
    listed $155,000 Active
17. 2018-01-26
    soldstatus $47,000
18. 2018-01-08
    soldstatus $47,000 Sold 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Great price on this neat and clean 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home in Caloosa Lake Village on nice size lot. Make your appointment today to preview this nice home with central H/A, two carports, priced under $50,000. It is being sold in AS IS condition, Due to age of mobile home (even though it has been well maintained and remodeled) and it has to be a cash or conventional financing and No owner financing is available.

19. 2017-12-04
    status Pending 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Great price on this neat and clean 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home in Caloosa Lake Village on nice size lot. Make your appointment today to preview this nice home with central H/A, two carports, priced under $50,000. It is being sold in AS IS condition, Due to age of mobile home (even though it has been well maintained and remodeled) and it has to be a cash or conventional financing and No owner financing is available.

20. 2017-11-27
    listed $49,000 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Great price on this neat and clean 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home in Caloosa Lake Village on nice size lot. Make your appointment today to preview this nice home with central H/A, two carports, priced under $50,000. It is being sold in AS IS condition, Due to age of mobile home (even though it has been well maintained and remodeled) and it has to be a cash or conventional financing and No owner financing is available.

21. 1984-08-01
    soldstatus $28,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $999 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$20/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$999
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$949
• After-tax cash flow: $5,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crooked Lake Park

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #17131

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crooked Lake Park, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,824
• Household income: $57,760
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.19%
• Current HPI: 267.4537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+447.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-08 Sold (MLS) $47,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-27 Listed $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $999 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.