19 Earl Dr · Rochester, NY 14624

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1935 10,019 sqft lot Est $241k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 19 Earl Drive!!! Wonderful open concept Ranch home, Some of the Many updates include a newly remodeled Kitchen with Edged counters, New tile backsplash and Crown molding, new light fixtures and tile flooring, you'll love the Custom built fireplace with granite hearth, New 6 panel doors and knobs, Freshly painted throughout, TONs of potential in the semi finished basement, newer Furnace and A/C, call today. .. .. ..

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious white kit
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS WHITE KIT
• EXPANSIVE COUNTER TOPS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• LARGE PANTRY
• NEWER STAINLESS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($573/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Paul Road School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 430 students, 42% FRL); Gates-Chili Middle School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #504 of 729 statewide, top 70%, 854 students, 58% FRL); Gates-Chili High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,132 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $190k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,042
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Earl Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,262 (0%)	0mo	$285,000	$226	100
24 Battle Green Dr	0.33mi	2/1.5	1,266 (+0%)	9mo	$241,906	$191	74
154 Westside Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,222 (-3%)	5mo	$285,000	$233	69
142 Westside Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,350 (+7%)	8mo	$213,000	$158	60
123 Rowley Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,209 (-4%)	5mo	$176,000	$146	58
28 Berna Ln	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,258 (-0%)	10mo	$190,000	$151	51
151 Rowley Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+9%)	6mo	$210,000	$152	46
751 Marshall Rd	0.50mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,391 (+10%)	6mo	$349,900	$252	44
2467 Chili Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,410 (+12%)	6mo	$220,000	$156	42
19 Berna Ln	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (-14%)	1mo	$260,000	$238	39
4 Entress Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,090 (-14%)	10mo	$210,000	$193	34
20 Audabon Ter	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,090 (-14%)	7mo	$165,000	$151	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,582
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,496
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14624

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,182/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $101	+0% $48	+5% $-6	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-30	+0% $48	+5% $125	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $96	base $48	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
456 Westside Dr Unit 6 Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	994	$2,100	$2.11	5d	1	0.56mi
254 Fisher Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,250	$2.05	45d	1	0.85mi
266 Fisher Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 2016-07-21
   soldstatus $114,900
4. 2016-07-19
   soldstatus $114,900 Closed Sale or Rented 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Welcome to 19 Earl Drive!!! Wonderful open concept Ranch home, Some of the Many updates include a newly remodeled Kitchen with Edged counters, New tile backsplash and Crown molding, new light fixtures and tile flooring, you'll love the Custom built fireplace with granite hearth, New 6 panel doors and knobs, Freshly painted throughout, TONs of potential in the semi finished basement, newer Furnace and A/C, call today. .. .. ..

5. 2016-02-04
   listed $114,900 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Welcome to 19 Earl Drive!!! Wonderful open concept Ranch home, Some of the Many updates include a newly remodeled Kitchen with Edged counters, New tile backsplash and Crown molding, new light fixtures and tile flooring, you'll love the Custom built fireplace with granite hearth, New 6 panel doors and knobs, Freshly painted throughout, TONs of potential in the semi finished basement, newer Furnace and A/C, call today. .. .. ..

6. 2010-05-13
   soldstatus $84,000
7. 2010-05-02
   soldstatus $84,000 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom with possible 3rd. Priced well below assessed value!!! Needs some TLC. Price reflects work needed to be done.

8. 2010-02-22
   listed $79,900 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom with possible 3rd. Priced well below assessed value!!! Needs some TLC. Price reflects work needed to be done.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,182 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,182 · $432/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$5,182
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$590
• After-tax cash flow: $1,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gates-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,045
• Composite: 36.23/100
• National rank: #4719
• State rank: #491 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,626
• Household income: $87,989
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 267.356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+137.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $189,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $114,900 Public Records
• 2016-07-19 Sold (MLS) $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-02-04 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2010-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-02 Sold (MLS) $84,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-02-22 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,182 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.