8012 Adel Ln · Zephyrhills North, FL 33540

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $133k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT rental investment ($1,500/month) or perfect starter home. 2 bed 2 bath on 1 acre in the country. Covered carport with large enclosed Florida room and storage. Hard work has been completed; interior stripped to studs, with new insulation, paneling and interior trim. Electrical all sorted out. Quiet and private country setting. 10 minutes to local hospital and Walmart. 2 new 12,000 BTU mini split units for heating and cooling, a $2,500 value ! Ready for your choice of paint, flooring and appliances. New entry doors. New stainless exhaust hood.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• New paneling
• New insulation

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW INSULATION
• NEW PANELING
• NEW INTERIOR TRIM
• ELECTRICAL SORTED OUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1986
• Construction: Constructed in 1986
• Exterior features: Located in the Heather Park subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($69/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $180k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,413 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,056
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8102 Adel Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	938 (+2%)	3mo	$135,000	$144	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,836
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,780
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,584/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $57	+0% $6	+5% $-45	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-52	+0% $6	+5% $64	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $52	base $6	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8129 Cass Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,100	$2.04	24d	1	0.67mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,964	$1.82	2d	34	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $180,000 Active
15. 2024-10-04
    historical
16. 2024-04-04
    listed $145,000 Active
17. 2006-04-04
    soldstatus $85,000
18. 2005-08-22
    listed $99,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,584
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$3,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,098

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $180,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-10-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-22 Listed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,584 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.