806 Shirley Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$143,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,131 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1998 9,147 sqft lot Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

home needs light cosmetics to be great investment, or owner occupier...some improvements have been made.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Shaded backyard
• Patio area

Tags

• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• SHADED BACKYARD
• PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1,131 total building area; Lot about 0.21 acre (approximately 74' x 125')

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; House; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer and wood siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built according to assessor records
• Exterior features: Front yard fencing; Fenced lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (total 1.5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in electric range; Cooktop; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,855 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,768
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Shirley Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5 (-1)	986 (-13%)	5mo	$80,750	$82	68
710 Beverly Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (-10%)	3mo	$140,000	$138	68
120 Imilda Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+6%)	3mo	$79,900	$67	66
1010 Michelle Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,252 (+11%)	4mo	$159,900	$128	64
305 Lavelle Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (-7%)	3mo	$140,000	$133	63
201 Tandy Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,026 (-9%)	9mo	$89,900	$88	61
322 Tandy Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,253 (+11%)	7mo	$89,000	$71	59
201 Mary Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,053 (-7%)	10mo	$170,000	$161	57
119 Gahan Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,100 (-3%)	3mo	$145,000	$132	56
11433 Klein Rd	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,150 (+2%)	3mo	$70,000	$61	55
122 Clarence Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+6%)	10mo	$179,500	$150	55
118 Clarence Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+15%)	6mo	$104,900	$81	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,038
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $70,972
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,063/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $439	+0% $399	+5% $358	+10% $318
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $334	+0% $399	+5% $463	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $435	base $399	+0.5pp $362	+1.0pp $324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1009 Michelle Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1254	$1,650	$1.32	44d	1	0.22mi
12040 Highland Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1019	$950	$0.93	14d	1	0.43mi
125 Clarence Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	14d	1	0.48mi
12147 Prudie Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$975	$0.89	44d	1	0.53mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,445	$1.29	14d	1	0.66mi
101 Fore St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,700	$1.40	14d	1	0.85mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	44d	1	0.99mi
11502 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	22d	1	1.13mi
11405 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	44d	1	1.20mi
11487 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	44d	1	1.20mi
11413 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	44d	1	1.20mi
11425 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	22d	1	1.20mi
13181 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,375	$1.16	44d	1	1.25mi
10669 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	22d	1	1.25mi
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	22d	1	1.38mi
15251 Parkwood Dr N Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	1.44mi
15373 Saint Charles St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0–3.0	1075	$1,350	$1.26	44d	2	1.45mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $143,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $143,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $143,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $143,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $143,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $143,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $143,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $146,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $146,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $146,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $146,000 Active
18. 2021-09-15
    historical
19. 2019-04-05
    listed $110,000
20. 2016-08-17
    soldstatus
21. 2016-08-16
    soldstatus 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    home needs light cosmetics to be great investment, or owner occupier...some improvements have been made.

22. 2016-06-03
    listed $50,000 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    home needs light cosmetics to be great investment, or owner occupier...some improvements have been made.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$66/yr (+$6/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$1,063
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $2,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$623
• After-tax cash flow: $4,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+192.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $146,000 MLSU
• 2021-09-15 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2019-04-05 Listed $110,000 MLSU
• 2016-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-16 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-06-03 Listed $50,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,063 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.