511 Elm St E · Buffalo, MN 55313

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 2004 ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in Buffalo. Built in 2004, this well-sized home offers 1,456 square feet of living space with a functional layout, including a spacious living area, kitchen, and private primary suite. Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor. Convenient location close to local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Property is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• Built 2004
• Listed 61 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade living area approximately 1,456; Lot size described as 'common' (units: acres)
• HOA & community: Land is leased (land lease $520)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Single-story; Entry/facing information not provided
• Construction: Built as a manufactured home; Foundation area approximately 1,456
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: No basement; One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $748 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 2.8% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#94 in MN, #2,114 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Buffalo-Hanover-Montrose Public Schools (town): math 52% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #63 of 301 in MN (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.73%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $35,466
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $92,172
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55313

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $748

Break-even live

Break-even rent $587

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $790	-5% $769	+0% $748	+5% $727	+10% $705
Rent	-10% $627	-5% $687	+0% $748	+5% $808	+10% $869
Rate	-1.0pp $786	-0.5pp $767	base $748	+0.5pp $728	+1.0pp $709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
804 6th Ave NE Unit 2 Buffalo, MN	2.0	1.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	25d	1	0.56mi
322 Creekside Dr Buffalo, MN	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,700	$1.00	0d	1	0.60mi
915 6th Ave NE Unit 915-206 Buffalo, MN	2.0	1.0	955	$1,289	$1.35	4d	1	0.70mi
913 6th Ave NE Unit 913-301 Buffalo, MN	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,469	$1.25	22d	1	0.71mi
913 6th Ave NE Unit 913-310 Buffalo, MN	2.0	1.0	955	$1,289	$1.35	20d	1	0.71mi
913 6th Ave NE Unit 913-309 Buffalo, MN	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,469	$1.25	4d	1	0.71mi
L1 B5 Lake Blvd NW Buffalo, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	912	$1,200	$1.32	0d	2	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $75,000
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $100,000 Active
16. 2026-04-14
    historical $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 39.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $8,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,975
• After-tax cash flow: $6,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo-Hanover-Montrose Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2707200
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $72,549
• Composite: 48.25/100
• National rank: #2159
• State rank: #63 of 301 in MN

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #2114

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, MN
• County: Wright County · 79,164 people
• City population: 24,913
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 24,913
• Household income: $92,455
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 219.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $100,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $100,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $470 · -46.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.