6443 Hollyberry Ln NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$94,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 989 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1984 4,408 sqft lot $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Best Deal in Polk County!!!! Highly desirable 55+ Brookehaven Village community! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home offers comfortable Florida living with a spacious Florida room, a versatile cabana room, and a convenient laundry/utility room. The home includes some furnishings, making your move even easier. With just a little dusting and cleaning, this property is ready to shine and become the perfect full-time residence, seasonal Florida retreat, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everyday amenities, while also featuring exceptionally low HOA fees. Priced for a quick sale, this is an opportunity you won't want

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Cabana room
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• CABANA ROOM
• LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM
• LOW HOA FEES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (manufactured home); Lot approximately 0.1 acre (50 x 88, paved road); Living area listed as 989 square feet; Furnished
• Financial info: Monthly HOA: $34 (total monthly fees shown $34); Total annual fees listed $408
• HOA & community: Brookhaven Village HOA with required monthly fee ($34); Clubhouse and pool; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed; Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; High‑speed internet available; Phone available; Fire hydrant on site; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a double-wide manufactured body type
• Exterior features: Awnings; French doors; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Skylights; Florida room (additional room)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Lake Alfred Polytech Academy (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 645 students, 59% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,574 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.70%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $11,154
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $40,445
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,482 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,944/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $929

Max offer price $94,999

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $463	+0% $437	+5% $410	+10% $383
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $378	+0% $437	+5% $495	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $461	base $437	+0.5pp $412	+1.0pp $387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,999 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,999 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,999 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,999 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,999 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,999 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,999 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,999 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,999 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,999 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $94,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,944
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$965
• After-tax cash flow: $4,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+90.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $94,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Listed $94,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,944 · +474.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.