26739 Hypatia Trce · Richmond, TX 77406

$408,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,546 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,649 sqft lot 2-car garage $161/sqft · 7% below area Est $438k · 7% under $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully upgraded modern two-story home in the Candela subdivision offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and functionality. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, and a spacious game room, this home is designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Home is filled with natural light featuring large windows throughout. The first floor has been completely refreshed with all new flooring, giving the main living area, a sleek contemporary feel. All bathrooms have been upgraded with new flooring, adding a cohesive and modern touch. The spacious primary suite includes a fully remodeled shower with new shower door.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Natural light
• Upgraded modern home

Tags

• UPGRADED MODERN HOME
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• NEW FLOORING
• REMODELED SHOWER
• BUILT-IN SECURITY SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $409k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (36.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1743 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,154 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.64%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,717
• List price: $408,900
• Delta: -6.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26703 Azalea Sky Dr	0.13mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,600 (+2%)	2mo	$473,176	$182	84
26723 Azalea Sky Dr	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,600 (+2%)	1mo	$464,549	$179	83
49 E Kitty Hawk St	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-6%)	2mo	$975,000	$408	77
26826 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,597 (+2%)	2mo	$474,899	$183	72
26707 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,600 (+2%)	2mo	$489,387	$188	72
26810 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,600 (+2%)	1mo	$474,620	$183	72
10506 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,460 (-3%)	2mo	$434,990	$177	72
26811 Steradian Lake Ln	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,782 (+9%)	2mo	$509,911	$183	72
10419 Melida Dawn Way	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,392 (-6%)	0mo	$489,900	$205	64
10607 Melida Dawn Way	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,898 (+14%)	0mo	$544,990	$188	56
26327 Rising Light Ln	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,899 (+14%)	2mo	$479,500	$165	48
38 E Kitty Hawk St	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,235 (-12%)	1mo	$820,000	$367	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-156,714
• Equity at exit: $60,968

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.38×
• Total profit: $-272,374
• Equity at exit: $35,354

Cash invested: $114,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 143 active · 63 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $469,900 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 126 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1743
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,144
• Tax from tax record: −$1,076 /mo · $12,908/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-1,301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,379

Max offer price $258,154

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,070	-5% $-1,186	+0% $-1,301	+5% $-1,417	+10% $-1,533
Rent	-10% $-1,517	-5% $-1,409	+0% $-1,301	+5% $-1,193	+10% $-1,085
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,095	-0.5pp $-1,197	base $-1,301	+0.5pp $-1,407	+1.0pp $-1,515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,225
• Closing costs: $12,267
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26407 Polaris Rise Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$3,750	$1.15	139d	1	0.24mi
10823 Capella Creek Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,600	$1.09	28d	1	0.59mi
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	139d	1	0.65mi
11319 Sandermeyer Dr Richmond, TX	5.0	4.0	2895	$2,146	$0.74	24d	1	0.80mi
26122 Serenity Oaks Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2438	$2,236	$0.92	71d	1	0.87mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	139d	1	0.98mi
10910 Brighton Gardens Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	2385	$2,595	$1.09	41d	1	0.98mi
6442 Applewood Forest Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,650	$0.94	45d	1	1.02mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,900	$3.18	139d	1	1.13mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,325	$2.92	10d	1	1.13mi
9743 Stratton Ridge Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2699	$2,356	$0.87	4d	1	1.14mi
26439 Richwood Oaks Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,050	$1.17	139d	1	1.21mi
6106 Carver Pines Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2557	$2,459	$0.96	76d	1	1.31mi
9419 Sparrow Creek Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2654	$2,950	$1.11	31d	1	1.34mi
6015 Starbrook Creek Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,410	$1.10	139d	1	1.42mi
9547 Summer River Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,300	$1.19	45d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as part of a municipal utility district disclosure and seller disclosure
• HOA & community: Community managed by Sterling Association ServicesAnnual association fee of $825Association amenities include clubhouse and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for securityLeased security system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yardBack yard fencingSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveDisposalOven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorBedroom on the first floorTwo bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $408,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $408,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $408,900 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $408,900 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $408,900 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $408,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $408,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $408,900 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $408,900 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $408,900 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $408,900 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $408,900 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $408,900 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $408,900 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $408,900 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $408,900 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $408,900 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $408,900 Active 83 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $408,900 Active 82 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $408,900 Active 81 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $408,900 Active 80 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $408,900 Active 79 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $408,900 Active 78 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $408,900 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $408,900 Active 76 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $408,900 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $408,900 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $408,900 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $408,900 Active 72 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $408,900 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $408,900 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $408,900 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $408,900 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $408,900 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $408,900 Active 66 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $408,900 Active 65 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $408,900 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $408,900 Active 63 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $408,900 Active 62 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $408,900 Active 60 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $408,900 Active 59 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $408,900 Active 58 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $408,900 Active 57 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $408,900 Active 54 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $408,900 Active 52 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $408,900 Active 51 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $408,900 Active 49 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $408,900 Active 47 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $408,900 Active 46 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $408,900 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,908 · $1,076/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,908 · $1,076/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,905
• − Property taxes: −$12,908
• − Insurance: −$2,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$11,895
• Taxable loss: −$23,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,531
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,730–$38,190 screening

This beautifully upgraded modern two-story home in the Candela subdivision is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great blend of style, comfort, and functionality, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can increase its value ↑
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can increase its value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joe Hubenak El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as part of a municipal utility district disclosure and seller disclosure
• HOA & community: Community managed by Sterling Association ServicesAnnual association fee of $825Association amenities include clubhouse and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for securityLeased security system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yardBack yard fencingSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveDisposalOven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorBedroom on the first floorTwo bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $408,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $419,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $424,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,908 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.