5229 Jean Dr · Clay, AL 35126

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1976 0.29 ac lot Est $258k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic location and fantastic schools. This cute 3 bedroom 2 bath is the perfect home for those who love the Clay-Chalkville area and want to take advantage of all of the great things this area has to offer. Beautiful kitchen with French doors leading to the deck. Large den. Master and master bath. Hallway vent fan. Downstairs has a great finished out area with a fireplace. Laundry/utlility room and an unfinished area great for workout area or workshop. Location is great with ease to shopping, entertainment and restaurants. Do not miss this beautiful home.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Large lot
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• LARGE LOT
• FENCED YARD
• DEDICATED DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.7% in Clay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AL, #3,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chalkville Elementary School (math 6% / reading 16%, grade F, #560 of 627 statewide, top 90%, 854 students, 79% FRL); Claychalkville High School (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 1,361 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.25%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,516
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5161 Sterling Glen Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,152 (-1%)	8mo	$240,000	$112	80
2565 Redwood Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,089 (-4%)	1mo	$230,000	$110	71
5104 Alex Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,097 (-3%)	5mo	$220,000	$105	71
5132 Alex Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,884 (-13%)	1mo	$245,500	$130	62
765 Gable Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,038 (-6%)	2mo	$139,000	$68	57
2128 Carraway St	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,138 (-1%)	1mo	$253,400	$119	54
5070 Abbey Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,877 (-13%)	10mo	$249,000	$133	52
2221 Diane Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,077 (-4%)	8mo	$230,000	$111	52
2317 Carraway St	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,392 (+10%)	11mo	$314,000	$131	47
2645 Chestnut Way	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,872 (-14%)	4mo	$250,000	$134	44
5644 Heather Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,397 (+11%)	5mo	$298,900	$125	42
2217 Pentland Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,396 (+11%)	9mo	$278,000	$116	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,694
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,102
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35126

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,065/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $306	+0% $262	+5% $218	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $131	-5% $197	+0% $262	+5% $328	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $302	base $262	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5240 Jean Dr Pinson, AL	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,695	$0.99	44d	1	0.05mi
5010 Darlene Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1914	$1,550	$0.81	24d	1	0.24mi
5140 Hickory Dr NE Pinson, AL	3.0	1.5	1518	$1,465	$0.97	22d	1	0.25mi
4464 Winchester Hills Ln Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	12d	1	0.80mi
5520 Desoto Cir Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,823	$1.06	12d	1	0.82mi
2202 Cheshire Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,325	$0.86	3d	1	1.06mi
2708 7th St NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1451	$1,150	$0.79	44d	1	1.06mi
2505 Martin Rd Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1551	$1,550	$1.00	2d	1	1.08mi
607 Country View Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	24d	1	1.09mi
605 Country View Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,560	$0.92	44d	1	1.11mi
2655 6th St NE Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,390	$0.87	3d	1	1.14mi
1819 Valley Run Cir Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.5	1694	$1,761	$1.04	44d	1	1.15mi
2232 6th St NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1550	$1,150	$0.74	44d	1	1.27mi
600 20th Ct NE Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,650	$0.88	24d	1	1.27mi
2249 4th Place Cir NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,400	$1.00	44d	1	1.35mi
1868 Carraway St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1819	$1,500	$0.82	24d	1	1.42mi
1748 Sonia Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1401	$1,395	$1.00	44d	1	1.43mi
1760 Sonia Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,635	$1.05	2d	1	1.44mi
5505 Leighaven Way Pinson, AL	3.0	2.5	1682	$2,000	$1.19	11d	1	1.49mi
1830 Christian St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,375	$0.94	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $155,000
3. 2026-03-24
   price $160,000
4. 2026-02-05
   price $169,900
5. 2026-01-13
   listed $175,000 Active
6. 2022-11-17
   historical
7. 2021-05-05
   soldstatus $155,500
8. 2021-05-04
   soldstatus $155,000 Sold 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   Fantastic location and fantastic schools. This cute 3 bedroom 2 bath is the perfect home for those who love the Clay-Chalkville area and want to take advantage of all of the great things this area has to offer. Beautiful kitchen with French doors leading to the deck. Large den. Master and master bath. Hallway vent fan. Downstairs has a great finished out area with a fireplace. Laundry/utlility room and an unfinished area great for workout area or workshop. Location is great with ease to shopping, entertainment and restaurants. Do not miss this beautiful home.

9. 2021-04-06
   historical Contingent 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   Fantastic location and fantastic schools. This cute 3 bedroom 2 bath is the perfect home for those who love the Clay-Chalkville area and want to take advantage of all of the great things this area has to offer. Beautiful kitchen with French doors leading to the deck. Large den. Master and master bath. Hallway vent fan. Downstairs has a great finished out area with a fireplace. Laundry/utlility room and an unfinished area great for workout area or workshop. Location is great with ease to shopping, entertainment and restaurants. Do not miss this beautiful home.

10. 2021-04-01
    status Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Fantastic location and fantastic schools. This cute 3 bedroom 2 bath is the perfect home for those who love the Clay-Chalkville area and want to take advantage of all of the great things this area has to offer. Beautiful kitchen with French doors leading to the deck. Large den. Master and master bath. Hallway vent fan. Downstairs has a great finished out area with a fireplace. Laundry/utlility room and an unfinished area great for workout area or workshop. Location is great with ease to shopping, entertainment and restaurants. Do not miss this beautiful home.

11. 2021-03-29
    historical Contingent 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Fantastic location and fantastic schools. This cute 3 bedroom 2 bath is the perfect home for those who love the Clay-Chalkville area and want to take advantage of all of the great things this area has to offer. Beautiful kitchen with French doors leading to the deck. Large den. Master and master bath. Hallway vent fan. Downstairs has a great finished out area with a fireplace. Laundry/utlility room and an unfinished area great for workout area or workshop. Location is great with ease to shopping, entertainment and restaurants. Do not miss this beautiful home.

12. 2021-03-21
    listed $155,000 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Fantastic location and fantastic schools. This cute 3 bedroom 2 bath is the perfect home for those who love the Clay-Chalkville area and want to take advantage of all of the great things this area has to offer. Beautiful kitchen with French doors leading to the deck. Large den. Master and master bath. Hallway vent fan. Downstairs has a great finished out area with a fireplace. Laundry/utlility room and an unfinished area great for workout area or workshop. Location is great with ease to shopping, entertainment and restaurants. Do not miss this beautiful home.

13. 1986-02-01
    soldstatus $61,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,065 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,065 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,065
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,594
• − Management: −$1,594
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$169
• After-tax cash flow: $2,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Clay

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clay, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,599
• Household income: $83,732
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 267.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.52%
• Current HPI: 188.6439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+150.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $155,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $160,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $175,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-11-17 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $155,500 Public Records
• 2021-05-04 Sold (MLS) $155,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-04-06 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-04-01 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-03-29 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-03-21 Listed $155,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1986-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,065 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.