7304 Ellie B Dr · Panama City, FL 32404

$259,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,013 sqft lot Est $315k · 17% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ever dream of a home that practically pays you back? This four-bedroom, two-bathroom gem comes equipped with solar panels, keeping those Florida energy bills refreshingly low while you do your part for the planet. With 1,788 square feet of living space, there's plenty of room to stretch out and make this place truly yours. Speaking of making it yours, this home is a canvas waiting for your creative touch. The bones are solid, and the layout flows nicely, but there's exciting renovation potential here for anyone who loves putting their personal stamp on a space. Whether you're dreaming of a gourmet kitchen overhaul, spa-worthy bathroom upgrades, or simply refreshing the finishes throughout,

Key facts

• 7,013 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,311 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,688
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7159 Riverbrooke St	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,768 (-1%)	13mo	$294,500	$167	63
7121 Shimano Way	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-14%)	5mo	$275,000	$179	56
5340 Whitney Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-2%)	17mo	$308,000	$176	54
7127 Penn Way	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-15%)	11mo	$290,000	$190	50
7130 Hatteras Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,546 (-14%)	13mo	$270,000	$175	47
7142 Hatteras Blvd	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+14%)	23mo	$299,999	$148	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-35,461
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-33,968
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,114

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5832 Viking Way Panama City, FL	5.0	3.0	2593	$2,595	$1.00	13d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $259,900 Active
3. 2025-05-27
   historical
4. 2025-05-08
   price $260,000
5. 2025-04-21
   price $285,000
6. 2025-03-08
   price $300,000
7. 2025-02-22
   price $304,900
8. 2025-02-19
   price $304,950
9. 2024-10-30
   listed $305,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,385 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,385 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$2,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$549
• After-tax cash flow: $2,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This four-bedroom, two-bathroom home is in good condition with solid bones and exciting renovation potential. It's move-in ready with a canvas for personalization.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding solar panels — Solar panels can reduce energy costs and appeal to eco-conscious buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Spa-worthy bathrooms can increase appeal and attract more buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding solar panels — Solar panels can reduce energy costs and appeal to eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Spa-worthy bathrooms can increase appeal and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $259,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-05-27 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $260,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $285,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $300,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $304,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $304,950 CPARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listed $305,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+52.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,385 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.