Aspen Plan · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The inspirational Aspen floor plan boasts three bedrooms, and two full bathrooms - the perfect home layout. The spacious two-car garage can serve as a space to park your cars, or cater to your storage needs by transforming it into a 2.5- or 3-car garage. Opening up the door to your new home, you will come across a decorative bookshelf inside your foyer, that brings that added stylish touch to your home. Just past the bookshelves is the welcoming formal dining room. You will love getting to entertain guests for dinner, since the conversation will stay flowing into the kitchen area. Want more natural light streaming in? You can have a box window seat installed just off the side of the dining, providing extra sunlight. The Aspen kitchen holds exclusive features like industry-leading appliances, designer light fixtures, granite countertops, and flat-panel birch cabinets. You also have a sizable pantry and expansive amount of counterspace to work with, making the space more convenient for you. Down the hall and overlooking the kitchen is the open-concept family room. This living area is a comfortable size with plenty of room for your furniture and your guests. You can also decide to install a gas log fireplace, should you desire to. Convenience does not stop there - in your backyard, you have the option of including a large covered patio for your leisure! Last but not least is your very private Master Bedroom. Your bedroom opens up to your Master Bathroom where your bathtub and. ..

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Box window seat
• Decorative bookshelf

Tags

• DECORATIVE BOOKSHELF
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BOX WINDOW SEAT
• INDUSTRY LEADING APPLIANCES
• DESIGNER LIGHT FIXTURES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $342,720.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22k ($259k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 81.9% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $96k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 81.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 270.06%
• DSCR: 13.02
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,720
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -21.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3623 Riverlands Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,651 (0%)	3mo	$321,000	$194	95
12111 Wooden Mill Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,651 (0%)	8mo	$321,424	$195	89
3815 Mulberry Farms Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+7%)	12mo	$340,000	$193	74
3422 Avenue K 1/2	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	15mo	$400,000	$235	71
12110 Wooden Mill Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,801 (+9%)	15mo	$318,981	$177	68
12102 Hollow Marsh Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,801 (+9%)	14mo	$329,990	$183	68
3630 Avenue J	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+8%)	19mo	$259,900	$145	65
3506 Avenue J 1/2	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+12%)	12mo	$417,500	$225	60
4110 Avenue J	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,575 (-5%)	15mo	$179,000	$114	53
4118 Eaton Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,778 (+8%)	11mo	$299,000	$168	53
4007 Avenue N 1/2	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,639 (-1%)	20mo	$330,000	$201	49
12008 7th St	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+13%)	9mo	$352,000	$189	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.76×
• Total profit: $1,320,409
• Equity at exit: $51,101

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.46×
• Total profit: $2,922,806
• Equity at exit: $29,632

Cash invested: $95,962 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $30,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,797
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,141/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,370
• Net cashflow: $21,596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,998

Max offer price $342,720

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,680
• Closing costs: $10,282
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	43d	1	0.89mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	21d	1	1.09mi
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,990 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2025-06-18
    price $269,990 1501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1501 chars)

    The inspirational Aspen floor plan boasts three bedrooms, and two full bathrooms - the perfect home layout. The spacious two-car garage can serve as a space to park your cars, or cater to your storage needs by transforming it into a 2.5- or 3-car garage. Opening up the door to your new home, you will come across a decorative bookshelf inside your foyer, that brings that added stylish touch to your home. Just past the bookshelves is the welcoming formal dining room. You will love getting to entertain guests for dinner, since the conversation will stay flowing into the kitchen area. Want more natural light streaming in? You can have a box window seat installed just off the side of the dining, providing extra sunlight. The Aspen kitchen holds exclusive features like industry-leading appliances, designer light fixtures, granite countertops, and flat-panel birch cabinets. You also have a sizable pantry and expansive amount of counterspace to work with, making the space more convenient for you. Down the hall and overlooking the kitchen is the open-concept family room. This living area is a comfortable size with plenty of room for your furniture and your guests. You can also decide to install a gas log fireplace, should you desire to. Convenience does not stop there - in your backyard, you have the option of including a large covered patio for your leisure! Last but not least is your very private Master Bedroom. Your bedroom opens up to your Master Bathroom where your bathtub and. ..

15. 2025-06-04
    price $274,990 1501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1501 chars)

    The inspirational Aspen floor plan boasts three bedrooms, and two full bathrooms - the perfect home layout. The spacious two-car garage can serve as a space to park your cars, or cater to your storage needs by transforming it into a 2.5- or 3-car garage. Opening up the door to your new home, you will come across a decorative bookshelf inside your foyer, that brings that added stylish touch to your home. Just past the bookshelves is the welcoming formal dining room. You will love getting to entertain guests for dinner, since the conversation will stay flowing into the kitchen area. Want more natural light streaming in? You can have a box window seat installed just off the side of the dining, providing extra sunlight. The Aspen kitchen holds exclusive features like industry-leading appliances, designer light fixtures, granite countertops, and flat-panel birch cabinets. You also have a sizable pantry and expansive amount of counterspace to work with, making the space more convenient for you. Down the hall and overlooking the kitchen is the open-concept family room. This living area is a comfortable size with plenty of room for your furniture and your guests. You can also decide to install a gas log fireplace, should you desire to. Convenience does not stop there - in your backyard, you have the option of including a large covered patio for your leisure! Last but not least is your very private Master Bedroom. Your bedroom opens up to your Master Bathroom where your bathtub and. ..

16. 2025-04-01
    listed $282,990 Active 1501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1501 chars)

    The inspirational Aspen floor plan boasts three bedrooms, and two full bathrooms - the perfect home layout. The spacious two-car garage can serve as a space to park your cars, or cater to your storage needs by transforming it into a 2.5- or 3-car garage. Opening up the door to your new home, you will come across a decorative bookshelf inside your foyer, that brings that added stylish touch to your home. Just past the bookshelves is the welcoming formal dining room. You will love getting to entertain guests for dinner, since the conversation will stay flowing into the kitchen area. Want more natural light streaming in? You can have a box window seat installed just off the side of the dining, providing extra sunlight. The Aspen kitchen holds exclusive features like industry-leading appliances, designer light fixtures, granite countertops, and flat-panel birch cabinets. You also have a sizable pantry and expansive amount of counterspace to work with, making the space more convenient for you. Down the hall and overlooking the kitchen is the open-concept family room. This living area is a comfortable size with plenty of room for your furniture and your guests. You can also decide to install a gas log fireplace, should you desire to. Convenience does not stop there - in your backyard, you have the option of including a large covered patio for your leisure! Last but not least is your very private Master Bedroom. Your bedroom opens up to your Master Bathroom where your bathtub and. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $364,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,141
• − Insurance: −$1,714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$29,122
• − Management: −$29,122
• − Depreciation: −$9,970
• Taxable income: $269,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64,742
• After-tax cash flow: $194,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $282,990 Zillow