31824 N Poplar St · Wittmann, AZ 85361

$340,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 2024 6,448 sqft lot $227/sqft · at area comps Est $343k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Listing agent and member of LLC are related.

Key facts

• 6,448 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-572 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Wittmann — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nadaburg Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 414 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $340k implies a 3300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.21%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,282
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -0.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31824 N Poplar St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,498 (0%)	1mo	$340,000	$227	99
32018 N Ash St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,469 (-2%)	2mo	$360,000	$245	88
32007 N Bush St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-4%)	4mo	$340,000	$237	82
21721 W Laura St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	3mo	$355,000	$253	82
32210 S Center St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-0%)	6mo	$360,000	$241	79
32102 N Walnut St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-10%)	3mo	$340,000	$252	73
21333 W Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-4%)	1mo	$399,000	$278	72
22125 W Laura St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	6mo	$390,000	$258	66
21309 W Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-4%)	5mo	$399,900	$278	66
21605 W Laura St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+14%)	5mo	$360,000	$212	65
32230 N Center St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-9%)	4mo	$357,900	$264	65
21770 W Harding Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-10%)	4mo	$252,001	$187	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $148,766
• Equity at exit: $306,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $466,815
• Equity at exit: $660,545

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,974

Max offer price $257,207

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-337	-5% $-455	+0% $-572	+5% $-690	+10% $-807
Rent	-10% $-750	-5% $-661	+0% $-572	+5% $-483	+10% $-394
Rate	-1.0pp $-401	-0.5pp $-486	base $-572	+0.5pp $-660	+1.0pp $-750

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21533 W Laura St Wittmann, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$2,250	$1.43	0d	1	0.10mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   Listing agent and member of LLC are related.

2. 2026-04-07
   price $340,000 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   Listing agent and member of LLC are related.

3. 2026-03-27
   price $344,000 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   Listing agent and member of LLC are related.

4. 2026-02-16
   listed $345,000 Active 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   Listing agent and member of LLC are related.

5. 2024-08-06
   status Active
6. 2024-07-31
   status Pending
7. 2024-07-31
   historical
8. 2024-07-12
   listed $355,000 Active
9. 2005-02-22
   soldstatus $10,000
10. 2003-05-09
    soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,100
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$13,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,133
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Wittmann

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #25597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment C- Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wittmann, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+5130.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $340,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $344,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $345,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-12 Listed $355,000 ARMLS
• 2005-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $91 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.