2417 King Dr · Scissors, TX 78537

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,443 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 245 Days on market

Built 2015 0.50 ac lot $67/sqft · 35% below area Est $353k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 2015
• Listed 245 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-716 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (49.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,265 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,576 (49.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.34%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,054
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -34.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $79,815
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $271,177
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78537

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$486 /mo · $5,829/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-716

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,263

Max offer price $116,576

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 226 DOM
17. 2025-10-16
    listed $230,000 Active
18. 2015-07-21
    soldstatus
19. 2012-04-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,829 · $486/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,829 · $486/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$5,829
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$12,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,090
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Scissors

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1265
• US rank: #22024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scissors, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,346

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 49% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.30%
• Current HPI: 243.3933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-16 Listed $230,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2015-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,829 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.