397 White Oak Ln · Shenandoah Retreat, VA 20135

$265,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1985 0.55 ac lot $241/sqft · 7% above area Est $406k · 35% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Down a long private road in Shenandoah Retreat, your next home/investment awaits your finishing touches! This classic rancher with a walkout basement lies on 5 lots, totaling over a half acre of land. The property backs to conservation, providing even more privacy in this mountain community. Since this property needs significant work, it is being sold as-is, where-is. The retreat is an incredible commuting location, with access to mountain trails, deeded river lots, and NO HOA. Please call with question.

Key facts

• Private road
• Walkout basement
• Mountain community

Tags

• PRIVATE ROAD
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• BACKS TO CONSERVATION
• MOUNTAIN COMMUNITY
• ACCESS TO MOUNTAIN TRAILS
• DEEDED RIVER LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-68/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#427 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarke County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Clarke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clarke County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,999 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,653
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -34.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 Pine Crest Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+14%)	10mo	$425,000	$341	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $143,854
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $423,689
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20135

• Home prices YoY: 18.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,216/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,027

Max offer price $263,997

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $69	+0% $-6	+5% $-81	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-85	+0% $-6	+5% $74	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $62	base $-6	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $265,000 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Down a long private road in Shenandoah Retreat, your next home/investment awaits your finishing touches! This classic rancher with a walkout basement lies on 5 lots, totaling over a half acre of land. The property backs to conservation, providing even more privacy in this mountain community. Since this property needs significant work, it is being sold as-is, where-is. The retreat is an incredible commuting location, with access to mountain trails, deeded river lots, and NO HOA. Please call with question.

16. 2026-04-03
    listed $290,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Down a long private road in Shenandoah Retreat, your next home/investment awaits your finishing touches! This classic rancher with a walkout basement lies on 5 lots, totaling over a half acre of land. The property backs to conservation, providing even more privacy in this mountain community. Since this property needs significant work, it is being sold as-is, where-is. The retreat is an incredible commuting location, with access to mountain trails, deeded river lots, and NO HOA. Please call with question.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$957/yr (+$80/mo · 78.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,216
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,136
• After-tax cash flow: $1,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100870
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,709
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1439
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Retreat

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #18247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Retreat, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,376

Population outlook (Clarke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,102 people
• By 2030: 15,463 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 16,014 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 16,212 · +7.4%
• By 2075: 17,257 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 16,631 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clarke

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 40.8% · R 57.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+13.7 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 74.29%
• Current HPI: 478.1048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $290,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,216 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.