663 Danube Dr · Horizon City, TX 79928

$127,106

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2004 6,120 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single story 3 bedroom 2 bath home in the Desert Palms subdivision. Right off Darrington Road with easy access to I-10/Loop 375 and near schools, shopping centers, and restaurants.

Key facts

• 6,120 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owned by bank/Real Estate Owned

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle pitched roof; Total building area 1090
• Exterior features: Walled backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Blinds

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carroll T Welch El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 636 students, 93% FRL); Ricardo Estrada Middle (math 15% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 518 students, 91% FRL); Horizon H S (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 1,677 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 59% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2088 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,292 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-14,317
• Equity at exit: $18,952

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,180
• Equity at exit: $10,990

Cash invested: $35,590 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2088
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$667
• Tax from tax record: −$420 /mo · $5,041/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $127,106

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,776
• Closing costs: $3,813
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14565 Hendrik Dr Unit B El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	970	$900	$0.93	3d	1	0.25mi
14624 Achim Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,500	$1.05	10d	1	0.38mi
656 Orchid Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,350	$1.24	24d	1	0.41mi
14269 Escalera Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,850	$1.46	3d	1	0.64mi
456 Von Bargen Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	14d	1	0.68mi
14333 Paraiso Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,000	$1.63	3d	1	0.83mi
14361 Star Cactus Ave Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,600	$1.37	10d	1	0.86mi
14608 Adonis Blue Ct El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	10d	1	0.87mi
14496 Cabana Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,475	$1.32	44d	1	0.87mi
15006 Nunda Dr Unit B Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,250	$1.12	24d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,106 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,106 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,106 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,106 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,106 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,106 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,106 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,106 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $127,106 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $133,796 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $133,796 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $133,796 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $133,796 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $133,796 Active 181-char remark
15. 2019-03-12
    status Pending
16. 2019-03-12
    historical
17. 2018-12-17
    price $90,000
18. 2018-11-08
    status Active
19. 2018-11-06
    status Pending
20. 2018-10-19
    listed $95,000 Active
21. 2011-03-02
    soldstatus
22. 2011-03-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,041 · $420/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,041 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,120
• − Property taxes: −$5,041
• − Insurance: −$636
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,503
• − Management: −$1,503
• − Depreciation: −$3,698
• Taxable loss: −$710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horizon City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horizon City, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $127,106 GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $133,796 GEPARMLS
• 2019-03-12 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2019-03-12 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2018-12-17 Price Changed $90,000 GEPARMLS
• 2018-11-08 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2018-11-06 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2018-10-19 Listed $95,000 GEPARMLS
• 2011-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,041 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.