122 Rarotonga Rd · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$122,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Manufactured public records · 359 Days on market

Built 1985 4,390 sqft lot $96/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST REDUCED. . MUST SEE. Beautiful furnished, turn key home. Has everything. Don't overlook this home. Very spacious, lovely, and in the pet section. This home has a his and hers computer/desk work area in a separate room. Seperate tub and shower in master. Bedroom, large walk-in closet. Murphy bed in cabinet in Living Room. New Refrigerator and Dishwasher 2010. Lazy River is an Adult Community on the Myakka River. Amenities include but not limited to; Large swimming pool, tennis courts, shuffleboatd courts, bocci ball, state of the art fitness center, library, wood working shop, computer room, game room and a beautiful club house with a fantastic kitchen. .. Boat ramp and docks so you can cruise the Myakka River. Lots of activities and clubs that you can take part in or just sit on your lovely lanai and read. Florida style is do what you want. .. Close to I-75 and minutes away on Rt 41 North to Venice, South to North Port with lots of shopping and restaurants. See you at Lazy River.

Key facts

• Kayak launch
• Pickleball courts
• Private marina

Tags

• PRIVATE MARINA
• BOAT RAMP
• KAYAK LAUNCH
• HEATED POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $96; association fee $288 quarterly); Association requires approval; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis, pickleball and shuffleboard courts, recreation facilities, storage, gated access, and cable TV; Senior community; Pets allowed with size/number/breed restrictions (max ~35 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Curb parking; Driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Internet connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces west; Completed condition; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Porch with screened area; Private mailbox; Shed(s); Flood zone; Paved lot and driveway; Boat access to brackish river; Private boat ramp; Fishing pier

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($759/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $123k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.08%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-20,339
• Equity at exit: $18,325

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-29,753
• Equity at exit: $10,626

Cash invested: $34,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,512/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,702

Max offer price $122,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $98	+0% $63	+5% $28	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-7	+0% $63	+5% $134	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $94	base $63	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,725
• Closing costs: $3,687
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Active
3. 2026-04-17
   historical
4. 2026-02-02
   price $122,900
5. 2025-10-20
   status Active
6. 2025-10-17
   historical
7. 2025-04-23
   listed $129,900 Active
8. 2011-06-06
   soldstatus $81,500 1000-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

   JUST REDUCED. . MUST SEE. Beautiful furnished, turn key home. Has everything. Don't overlook this home. Very spacious, lovely, and in the pet section. This home has a his and hers computer/desk work area in a separate room. Seperate tub and shower in master. Bedroom, large walk-in closet. Murphy bed in cabinet in Living Room. New Refrigerator and Dishwasher 2010. Lazy River is an Adult Community on the Myakka River. Amenities include but not limited to; Large swimming pool, tennis courts, shuffleboatd courts, bocci ball, state of the art fitness center, library, wood working shop, computer room, game room and a beautiful club house with a fantastic kitchen. .. Boat ramp and docks so you can cruise the Myakka River. Lots of activities and clubs that you can take part in or just sit on your lovely lanai and read. Florida style is do what you want. .. Close to I-75 and minutes away on Rt 41 North to Venice, South to North Port with lots of shopping and restaurants. See you at Lazy River.

9. 2011-02-21
   listed $94,500 1000-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

   JUST REDUCED. . MUST SEE. Beautiful furnished, turn key home. Has everything. Don't overlook this home. Very spacious, lovely, and in the pet section. This home has a his and hers computer/desk work area in a separate room. Seperate tub and shower in master. Bedroom, large walk-in closet. Murphy bed in cabinet in Living Room. New Refrigerator and Dishwasher 2010. Lazy River is an Adult Community on the Myakka River. Amenities include but not limited to; Large swimming pool, tennis courts, shuffleboatd courts, bocci ball, state of the art fitness center, library, wood working shop, computer room, game room and a beautiful club house with a fantastic kitchen. .. Boat ramp and docks so you can cruise the Myakka River. Lots of activities and clubs that you can take part in or just sit on your lovely lanai and read. Florida style is do what you want. .. Close to I-75 and minutes away on Rt 41 North to Venice, South to North Port with lots of shopping and restaurants. See you at Lazy River.

10. 1999-04-12
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,512
• − Insurance: −$5,733
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$3,575
• Taxable loss: −$898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$216
• After-tax cash flow: $974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+80.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $122,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-06 Sold (MLS) $81,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-21 Listed $94,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,512 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.