19 Church St · Dunbar, PA 15431

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1910 3,484 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the kind of space, comfort, and character that just feels right from the moment you walk in. This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Dunbar offers a mix of charm, thoughtful updates, and everyday functionality that makes it easy to picture yourself settling in. One of the first things you’ll notice is the high ceilings that give the home an open, airy feel while still feeling warm and inviting. The living space has a cozy personality of its own, complete with a decorative fireplace that adds charm and makes the room feel like the perfect place to unwind, gather with loved ones, or simply enjoy a quiet evening at home. The kitchen offers a center island th

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Laminate flooring
• Decorative fireplace

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE
• CENTER ISLAND
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2 stories; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric cooling; Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace (1); Interior entry basement; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Some electric appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,255 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Connellsville Area SD (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #440 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $75k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.47%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,976
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
240 Connellsville St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+14%)	6mo	$270,000	$176	42
502 Ferguson Rd	0.74mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,160 (-14%)	6mo	$155,000	$134	30
504 Ferguson Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+9%)	22mo	$225,000	$154	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $27,256
• Equity at exit: $28,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $71,209
• Equity at exit: $41,294

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15431

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,068/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $720

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $398	-5% $376	+0% $355	+5% $334	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $263	-5% $309	+0% $355	+5% $401	+10% $448
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $374	base $355	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,126 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,068
• − Insurance: −$1,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $3,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connellsville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4206660
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,315
• Composite: 25.95/100
• National rank: #7333
• State rank: #440 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dunbar

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1255
• US rank: #15065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunbar, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,328

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Current HPI: 153.7077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $75,000 West Penn MLS
• 2010-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,068 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.