607 Three Rivers Rd · Carrabelle, FL 32322

$224,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1984 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable cottage is located blocks from the Carrabelle River and minutes from Carrabelle Public Beach. With this freshly renovated home could be your next started home, retirement home, or even your vacation home this one checks all the boxes at a great price! A short drive could have you on St. George Island or Historical Apalachicola. Renovations were tastefully done and include new railings for both porches, new HVAC system that includes a one-year warranty, hot water heater, kitchen cabinets, paint, bathroom vanity, as well as the main water line has been replaced along with some interior plumbing, all new GFI Breakers, fence in the rear of home will be removed, lot extends 1,000 sq feet past fence line. The owner is offering a copy of the clear 4-point inspection which was completed by a licensed home inspector.

Key facts

• Privacy fence
• Short drive to beach
• Remodeled cottage

Tags

• REMODELED COTTAGE
• SHORT DRIVE TO BEACH
• PRIVACY FENCE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Residential property
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Cleared corner lot; City street frontage; Located in the Three Rivers subdivision; New construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

🏗️ New construction. The $224,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,672.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-527 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.9% in Carrabelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#466 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,388 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,672
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Three Rivers Rd	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,050 (+7%)	4mo	$350,000	$333	67
512 NW Ave B	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+2%)	11mo	$170,000	$169	54
188 West Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,005 (+2%)	18mo	$336,000	$334	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-86,833
• Equity at exit: $48,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-119,525
• Equity at exit: $28,331

Cash invested: $91,748 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32322

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,718
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,072/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,461

Max offer price $234,570

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-434	+0% $-527	+5% $-620	+10% $-713
Rent	-10% $-669	-5% $-598	+0% $-527	+5% $-456	+10% $-385
Rate	-1.0pp $-362	-0.5pp $-444	base $-527	+0.5pp $-612	+1.0pp $-698

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,918
• Closing costs: $9,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $224,900 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $224,900 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,900 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,900 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-04-14
    price $224,900
20. 2026-02-03
    listed $234,900 Active
21. 2025-09-25
    price $234,900
22. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus $195,000 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    This adorable cottage is located blocks from the Carrabelle River and minutes from Carrabelle Public Beach. With this freshly renovated home could be your next started home, retirement home, or even your vacation home this one checks all the boxes at a great price! A short drive could have you on St. George Island or Historical Apalachicola. Renovations were tastefully done and include new railings for both porches, new HVAC system that includes a one-year warranty, hot water heater, kitchen cabinets, paint, bathroom vanity, as well as the main water line has been replaced along with some interior plumbing, all new GFI Breakers, fence in the rear of home will be removed, lot extends 1,000 sq feet past fence line. The owner is offering a copy of the clear 4-point inspection which was completed by a licensed home inspector.

23. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus $195,000

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    This adorable cottage is located blocks from the Carrabelle River and minutes from Carrabelle Public Beach. With this freshly renovated home could be your next started home, retirement home, or even your vacation home this one checks all the boxes at a great price! A short drive could have you on St. George Island or Historical Apalachicola. Renovations were tastefully done and include new railings for both porches, new HVAC system that includes a one-year warranty, hot water heater, kitchen cabinets, paint, bathroom vanity, as well as the main water line has been replaced along with some interior plumbing, all new GFI Breakers, fence in the rear of home will be removed, lot extends 1,000 sq feet past fence line. The owner is offering a copy of the clear 4-point inspection which was completed by a licensed home inspector.

24. 2022-04-28
    listed $205,000 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    This adorable cottage is located blocks from the Carrabelle River and minutes from Carrabelle Public Beach. With this freshly renovated home could be your next started home, retirement home, or even your vacation home this one checks all the boxes at a great price! A short drive could have you on St. George Island or Historical Apalachicola. Renovations were tastefully done and include new railings for both porches, new HVAC system that includes a one-year warranty, hot water heater, kitchen cabinets, paint, bathroom vanity, as well as the main water line has been replaced along with some interior plumbing, all new GFI Breakers, fence in the rear of home will be removed, lot extends 1,000 sq feet past fence line. The owner is offering a copy of the clear 4-point inspection which was completed by a licensed home inspector.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$795/yr (+$66/mo · 74.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,072
• − Insurance: −$1,638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − Depreciation: −$9,532
• Taxable loss: −$12,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,004
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrabelle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #8398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrabelle, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,348

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.76%
• Current HPI: 185.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+9.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $224,900 RAFGC
• 2026-02-03 Listed $234,900 RAFGC
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $234,900 RAFGC
• 2022-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-23 Sold (MLS) $195,000 RAFGC
• 2022-04-28 Listed $205,000 RAFGC

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,072 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.