40118 344th St · Aitkin, MN 56431

$224,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2006 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to his well maintained property just a couple miles from downtown Aitkin. Located on a quiet road surrounded by mature trees. This manufactured home features vaulted ceilings, skylights, kitchen island, and a separate office room. 3 bedroom and 2 full bathrooms all on one level with an attached 3 car garage. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a full private bathroom with a jetted tub. Located on a one acre lot close to many surrounding lakes, snowmobile, and ATV trails. Available for a quick close. Don't miss out on this move in ready property!

Key facts

• Separate office
• Laundry rooms
• Separate shower

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• WALK IN CLOSET
• JETTED TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• SEPARATE OFFICE
• LAUNDRY ROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage with garage door opener; 3 garage spaces; Gravel (drive/other parking); Garage dimensions about 21 x 31
• Utilities: Private well water; Mound septic / private sewer; Electric with circuit breakers; Propane fuel; Power provided by Mille Lacs Energy Co-op
• Home design: Residential property; Manufactured home: yes; One level (single story); Main entry and living on one level
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Block foundation; Built with approximately 1,779 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: Patio; Vinyl exterior; Irregular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 135 x 316 x 125 x 368; Paved streets and township road frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom has separate tub and shower; Main floor full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Skylight; No internal stairs (single-level living); Main floor primary bedroom; All living facilities on one level; Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on main level; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater; Fuel tank (rented)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Aitkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#193 in MN, #4,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Aitkin Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #84 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rippleside Elementary (math 55% / reading 57%, grade C+, #304 of 857 statewide, top 36%, 493 students, 54% FRL); Aitkin Secondary School (math 52% / reading 50%, grade D+, #127 of 471 statewide, top 27%, 526 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Aitkin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Aitkin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,802 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $22,472
• Equity at exit: $106,314

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $87,002
• Equity at exit: $168,332

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56431

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $614/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,670

Max offer price $197,229

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-88	+0% $-152	+5% $-215	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-210	+0% $-152	+5% $-93	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-95	base $-152	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $224,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,000 Contingent - Subject to Financing 33 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,000 Contingent - Subject to Financing 32 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,000 Contingent - Subject to Financing 31 DOM
5. 2026-05-01
   historical Contingent - Subject to Financing
6. 2026-04-27
   listed $224,000 Active
7. 2022-06-16
   soldstatus $199,900 Sold 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   Welcome home to his well maintained property just a couple miles from downtown Aitkin. Located on a quiet road surrounded by mature trees. This manufactured home features vaulted ceilings, skylights, kitchen island, and a separate office room. 3 bedroom and 2 full bathrooms all on one level with an attached 3 car garage. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a full private bathroom with a jetted tub. Located on a one acre lot close to many surrounding lakes, snowmobile, and ATV trails. Available for a quick close. Don't miss out on this move in ready property!

8. 2022-06-16
   soldstatus $199,900

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   Welcome home to his well maintained property just a couple miles from downtown Aitkin. Located on a quiet road surrounded by mature trees. This manufactured home features vaulted ceilings, skylights, kitchen island, and a separate office room. 3 bedroom and 2 full bathrooms all on one level with an attached 3 car garage. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a full private bathroom with a jetted tub. Located on a one acre lot close to many surrounding lakes, snowmobile, and ATV trails. Available for a quick close. Don't miss out on this move in ready property!

9. 2022-05-08
   status Pending 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   Welcome home to his well maintained property just a couple miles from downtown Aitkin. Located on a quiet road surrounded by mature trees. This manufactured home features vaulted ceilings, skylights, kitchen island, and a separate office room. 3 bedroom and 2 full bathrooms all on one level with an attached 3 car garage. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a full private bathroom with a jetted tub. Located on a one acre lot close to many surrounding lakes, snowmobile, and ATV trails. Available for a quick close. Don't miss out on this move in ready property!

10. 2022-05-06
    listed $189,900 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Welcome home to his well maintained property just a couple miles from downtown Aitkin. Located on a quiet road surrounded by mature trees. This manufactured home features vaulted ceilings, skylights, kitchen island, and a separate office room. 3 bedroom and 2 full bathrooms all on one level with an attached 3 car garage. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a full private bathroom with a jetted tub. Located on a one acre lot close to many surrounding lakes, snowmobile, and ATV trails. Available for a quick close. Don't miss out on this move in ready property!

11. 2022-05-03
    historical $189,900 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Welcome home to his well maintained property just a couple miles from downtown Aitkin. Located on a quiet road surrounded by mature trees. This manufactured home features vaulted ceilings, skylights, kitchen island, and a separate office room. 3 bedroom and 2 full bathrooms all on one level with an attached 3 car garage. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a full private bathroom with a jetted tub. Located on a one acre lot close to many surrounding lakes, snowmobile, and ATV trails. Available for a quick close. Don't miss out on this move in ready property!

12. 2004-10-25
    soldstatus $15,000 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Here is a nice one acre building site. Lot has power, propane, septic & well on site. Needs some mowing and old trailor moved out.

13. 2004-09-20
    historical 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Here is a nice one acre building site. Lot has power, propane, septic & well on site. Needs some mowing and old trailor moved out.

14. 2004-07-30
    listed $20,000 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Here is a nice one acre building site. Lot has power, propane, septic & well on site. Needs some mowing and old trailor moved out.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $614 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,561 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$947/yr (+$79/mo · 154.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$614
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$5,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $-403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aitkin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2702760
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,614
• Composite: 45.59/100
• National rank: #2592
• State rank: #84 of 301 in MN

Livability — Aitkin

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #4127

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,142

Population outlook (Aitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,340 people
• By 2030: 13,514 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 11,928 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 10,804 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 9,555 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 8,380 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Aitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.8% · R 64.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Current HPI: 294.08
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1020.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $224,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $199,900 Public Records
• 2022-06-16 Sold (MLS) $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-08 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Listed $189,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-03 Coming Soon $189,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-25 Sold (MLS) $15,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-30 Listed $20,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $614 · +49.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.